A wave of speculative bets is hitting the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, with users wagering on which country former President Donald Trump might target with military action if he returns to power.
Big Wins and Market Expansion
The surge in geopolitical gambling follows a major payout for one trader, who reportedly won more than $400,000 by correctly predicting that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be ousted. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, this substantial win has fuelled further interest in high-stakes political forecasting on the platform.
In response, Polymarket has introduced several new contracts. These allow users to speculate on the likelihood of U.S. military intervention in countries including Colombia and Cuba. The platform is effectively creating a financial market for opinions on future conflict.
Ethical Questions and Market Justification
The platform appears conscious of the moral dilemmas posed by allowing bets on events with profound human consequences. A disclaimer attached to some contracts, particularly those related to the Middle East, attempts to frame the activity as a public good.
It states that prediction markets aim to "harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society." The note adds that during "gut-wrenching times," such markets can provide answers that traditional news media cannot.
However, the line between forecasting and profiting from potential tragedy has caused friction. Some traders felt aggrieved when bets on a full-scale U.S. invasion of Venezuela by 31 January were voided. Polymarket later clarified that a mission targeting Maduro did not meet its definition of an "invasion."
Current Odds and Wider Political Bets
As of Thursday, 8 January 2026, the crowd on Polymarket is assigning specific probabilities to various global flashpoints. Traders currently see a 25% chance of U.S. airstrikes on Iran before the end of January. They also price a 63% likelihood that the ceasefire between Iran and Israel will collapse by 30 June.
The speculative fervour extends beyond immediate military action. Other contracts gaining traction include the possibility of Trump acquiring Greenland for the United States by the end of 2026, with the market currently rating that a 16% probability.
Prediction markets like Polymarket rose to greater prominence during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where they accurately forecast Trump's victory. They now operate alongside traditional sports betting sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, but with a focus on political and world events.
The Independent has contacted Polymarket for further comment on its latest geopolitical betting contracts.
