Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election has cemented his path to become the next Prime Minister, but it comes with a warning: prepare to be poorer. The self-styled 'King of the North' secured a majority far exceeding expectations, making his plan to oust Keir Starmer seem inevitable. Within days, weeks, or months, Burnham is expected to enter No 10.
Ed Miliband Tipped as Chancellor
While Burnham is seen as more affable than Starmer, critics argue he is equally shallow politically. Worryingly, he appears keen to appear even more left-wing, with a penchant for spending other people's money—meaning yours. The cost of government borrowing rose slightly on Friday morning following the Makerfield result. Terrifyingly for the nation's strivers, Ed Miliband is tipped as favourite to become Chancellor in a Burnham government.
Miliband, who has described becoming more radical with age, is an instinctive tax-and-spend politician who wants public control of utilities. He is the reason the UK remains bound by punishing net zero rules and cannot reap rewards from North Sea drilling.
Key Allies in a Burnham Cabinet
Expect to see Louise Haigh in Cabinet. She resigned as transport secretary after pleading guilty to a fraud offence before becoming an MP. Haigh is in favour of higher property taxes, a wealth tax, and softer targets for reducing debt. Angela Rayner, whose tax troubles have been resolved, appears to have done a deal with her Greater Manchester neighbour to support him. Another key ally is Lisa Nandy, who believes men can become women.
Before the new Cabinet can be assembled, a bloody coup is expected to tear the Labour Party apart, pushing pressing national issues to the bottom of the agenda. Burnham may feel his resounding victory shows he is the only man to defeat Reform, so Starmer should quietly stand aside. But the Prime Minister is right to believe that just because someone wants his job, it doesn't mean he has to give it to them.
Concerns Over Economic Impact
The country will suffer if the government spends months consumed by Labour's civil war, but a coronation for Burnham could be far worse in the long term. As Manchester's mayor, he has been popular, but dealing with bus routes is a leap from managing the benefits bill or tackling threats from Russia and China. His reputation as a flip-flopper increased during the by-election, as he changed positions on issues within hours.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, warns that a Burnham government could spook UK bond markets and accelerate a mass exodus of wealth. He said: 'Burnham's success makes future tax raids on wealth appear more plausible. Capital gains tax, inheritance tax, and wealth taxes are on the horizon.'
Burnham likes to spend money but has agreed to be bound by Labour's rules preventing borrowing for day-to-day spending. He won't break the manifesto promise ruling out rises in VAT, national insurance, and income tax. So buckle up: a slew of sneaky tax rises are on the way, and they will hurt strivers the most.
