Ethnic minorities and people in deprived areas of England are at greater risk of dying from heat-related causes, according to a study published in BMJ Public Health. The research, led by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), analysed over 430,000 patient deaths between 2016 and 2020, finding that black individuals had a 27% higher risk of heat-related death compared to white individuals, while Asian individuals faced a 10% higher risk.
The study used a measure called relative effect modification (REM), where a value above 1 indicates a greater impact on the group being compared. Black people had a REM of 1.27 and Asian people a REM of 1.1. The authors suggest that differences in housing quality, access to cooling, underlying health conditions, and socioeconomic factors may contribute to these disparities.
People in the two most deprived groups in England also had a significantly higher risk of heat-related death than those in the least deprived groups. The study did not find a significant association for middle deprivation groups. Dr Ross Thompson, lead author and principal environmental public health scientist at UKHSA, said the findings highlight how climate change exacerbates existing health inequalities.
Previous data from University College London estimated nearly 600 deaths during the June 2023 heatwave, with over 10,000 premature deaths from summer heatwaves between 2020 and 2024. In 2022, when temperatures exceeded 40°C, England recorded 2,985 excess heat deaths. Scientists project that heat-related deaths could rise to 30,000 per year by the 2070s.
Prof Lea Berrang Ford, head of the UKHSA Centre for Climate and Health Security, emphasised the need to consider contextual factors beyond clinical vulnerability when identifying at-risk patients. Matthew Bazeley-Bell, deputy chief executive of the Royal Society for Public Health, called the findings “alarming” and urged policymakers to protect communities disproportionately affected by rising temperatures.
