Parts of England are expected to experience temperatures of 35°C on Monday, marking an unprecedented May heatwave. The Met Office has forecast that this will be the hottest May day on record, surpassing the previous high of 32.8°C by a significant margin. A spokesperson noted that records are typically broken by fractions of a degree, making this 2.2°C jump exceptional.
Record-Breaking Temperatures
The last time a monthly maximum record was broken was in January 2024, by 1.6°C. Similarly, the 40.3°C recorded in July 2022 exceeded the prior record by 1.6°C. If the forecasted 35°C is achieved, it will represent a substantial leap. Sunday night already saw a new overnight record of 19.4°C at Kenley in Greater London, narrowly avoiding a "tropical night" (where temperatures remain above 20°C). However, Monday and Tuesday nights are predicted to bring tropical nights for the first time in May, before conditions ease on Wednesday.
Heatwave Conditions
Sunday was the UK's hottest May day in at least 79 years, with Kew Gardens in west London recording 32.3°C. Several areas in England are now officially in heatwave territory, including Santon Downham in Suffolk, Heathrow, Kew Gardens, Northolt in London, Benson in Oxfordshire, Brooms Barn in Suffolk, and High Beach and Writtle in Essex.
Future Outlook: Super El Niño
More heatwaves are expected this summer due to a developing "super El Niño" phenomenon, which amplifies weather events and makes them more extreme. El Niño involves warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Its effects are predicted to intensify by 2027, likely breaking global heat records, but it is expected to begin emerging this summer. In contrast, La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures are below average.
Long-Term Trends
Temperatures of 30°C, once unusual even in summer, are becoming more common in the UK. According to the European State of the Climate report, Europe is the fastest-warming continent globally. The UK typically sees its hottest weather in late July or early August, so forecasters anticipate even higher temperatures later this summer.
