Powerful winds have triggered a rare and dramatic weather phenomenon on Lake Erie, causing the lake to effectively drain at one end while flooding parts of Buffalo, New York, at the other. Meteorologists have identified the event as a significant seiche, driven by intense atmospheric conditions.
What is a Seiche and How Did It Form?
The event unfolded on Monday, 30 December 2025, as sustained winds from the southwest blew towards Buffalo at 35 to 45 mph, with powerful gusts reaching up to 75 mph. This relentless wind pressure pushed vast volumes of water eastwards, creating a massive imbalance in the lake's water levels.
Fox8 meteorologist Scott Sabol offered a simple analogy to explain the complex event. "It's like sloshing the water in your bathtub," he said. "The water will go from the west of the lake to the east part of the lake and will drastically change the height of the lake over a short period of time." He confirmed that levels typically return to normal once the winds subside.
Dramatic Water Level Differences and Impacts
The effects were stark and rapid. By about 12:30 pm on Monday, water levels in Buffalo had risen more than six feet compared to their height at 4:30 am. At the opposite end of the lake in Toledo, Ohio, levels had fallen by an astonishing 13 feet, exposing sections of the lakebed.
National Weather Service meteorologist Tom Niziol highlighted the scale of the disparity on social media platform X. "There is nearly an 8 foot difference now between the water level at Buffalo and Toledo, along the 225 mile stretch of Lake Erie," he posted. The seiche also generated waves of nearly 30 feet in height.
Severe Warnings and Widespread Damage
In response to the dangerous conditions, the National Weather Service issued a high wind warning for Monday and Tuesday, cautioning that winds could topple trees and power lines. A concurrent lakeshore flood warning was also in effect due to the extreme winds and wave action.
Tom Niziol shared firsthand accounts of the severe conditions, posting footage of individuals struggling to walk against wind-driven waves crashing onto the shoreline. "In all my years living up here in Buffalo, I don't think I've ever seen it this bad along the Lakeshore," he stated. He reported three hours of gusts exceeding 80 mph, combined with freezing spray that coated trees and caused extensive damage.
The extreme weather also impacted maritime activity, with reports confirming that a massive Canadian freighter became stuck in the ice on Lake Erie amidst the turbulent conditions.
