A Guardian investigation has revealed that millions more homes across England, Scotland and Wales face devastating floods, with some towns potentially needing to be abandoned as climate breakdown renders many areas uninsurable. New analysis from the insurance industry, seen by the Guardian, shows that every parliamentary constituency is projected to be at greater risk, with densely populated areas such as London, Manchester and parts of north-east England likely to be worst hit.
Jason Storah, chief executive for UK & Ireland general insurance at Aviva, which published the analysis, said: “The findings are stark. Millions more properties will be at risk from flooding, with rising temperatures, increased urbanisation and inadequate drainage.” Aviva’s report highlights growing concern within the industry about the impact of severe weather events driven by the climate crisis. Storah added: “We are not talking about this because we are waving a flag about climate or sustainability – our business is totally correlated with what happens in the environment.”
Tenbury Wells in Worcestershire has become the first town in the country to find its public buildings uninsurable. The market town has historically suffered damaging floods about once a decade, but in the past six years has been hit four times. Lesley Davies, deputy mayor of Tenbury council, said: “We do feel abandoned. We are the blueprint for what could happen in the future – there may be other towns getting towards that situation.”
Aviva analysed every parliamentary constituency in England, Scotland and Wales. In England, the number of properties at risk from flooding is expected to increase by 27%, from 6.3 million to 8 million, with high-risk areas for flash flooding likely to increase by up to 66% by mid-century. In London, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, and Boston and Skegness in Lincolnshire, are projected to have about 90% of homes at risk from river and coastal flooding by 2050. Surface-water flood risk is particularly acute in dense urban areas, with 14 London constituencies in the top 20.
Over the past decade, 110,000 new homes were built in the highest-risk flood zones, equivalent to one in 13 new homes. Aviva calculates that if this trend continues, 115,000 of the government’s planned 1.5m new homes would also be in these zones. Emma Boyd, former chair of the Environment Agency, said it may be too expensive to protect some areas, and some may have to be abandoned as resources become constrained.
