As Arsenal prepare to face Aston Villa this Saturday, a major subplot revolves around the striker who almost swapped claret and blue for red and white. The Gunners' pursuit of Ollie Watkins in the January transfer window ultimately ended without a deal, a decision that now looks pivotal for both clubs.
The High-Stakes Negotiations That Stalled
Aston Villa's financial pressures linked to the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) created a unique opportunity last winter. The club needed to sell a major asset, with the choice falling between their two main forwards: Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran. This forced openness alerted Arsenal, who had long admired the England international.
Mikel Arteta's side, embroiled in a tight title race and seeking more firepower, tested the waters with a substantial offer. Arsenal submitted a bid of £40 million for the 29-year-old striker. However, Villa's valuation was significantly higher, set firmly at around £60 million. The Midlands club swiftly rejected the Gunners' approach, leading to an impasse.
Despite Watkins' reported personal desire to join the club he supported as a boy, Arsenal's hierarchy decided the asking price was too steep for a player approaching 30. Rather than overspend, they chose to withdraw from talks and postpone their search for a new number nine until the summer.
How the Decision Shaped Both Clubs' Seasons
With the Watkins deal off the table, Aston Villa's path became clear. They proceeded to sell Jhon Duran to Saudi Arabian side Al-Nassr for a fee of £64 million in January. This transaction eased their PSR concerns and cemented Watkins' status as the undisputed main man in their attack for the remainder of the campaign.
For Arsenal, the choice to wait proved to be a calculated gamble. Having finished as runners-up in the Premier League for two consecutive seasons, the pressure to strengthen and finally win the title was immense. Yet, the club's leadership opted for strategic patience over a panic buy.
This patience led to the summer signing of Swedish striker Viktor Gyokeres. While his adaptation has been steady rather than spectacular, six goals in his first 16 appearances represents a respectable start to life in North London.
The Current Form and Saturday's Showdown
The narrative has shifted considerably since January. Watkins, who netted 27 times in the 2023/24 season, has found goals harder to come by this term, scoring just three in 20 appearances across all competitions. In contrast, Villa as a team have been in strong form and start this weekend in third place.
Arsenal, meanwhile, enter the weekend fixture at Villa Park five points clear at the Premier League summit. A 2-0 midweek victory over Brentford got them back to winning ways after a draw with Chelsea.
This Saturday's early kick-off now presents a fascinating direct comparison. Both Gyokeres and Watkins have a prime opportunity to justify their clubs' respective decisions. A win for Arsenal would solidify their position as title favourites, while a strong Villa performance could reignite questions about the transfer that never was.
Football, however, is a game of long-term strategies and short-term dramas. The collapse of the £60 million move is now a key footnote in the season, but its final judgement may yet be written on the pitch at Villa Park.
