Steve Tandy has confirmed he will make changes to his Wales side for next Saturday's Test against South Africa following the 35-21 defeat by Argentina in San Juan. The squad travelled to Durban on Sunday before Tandy and his coaching staff finalise their selection, leaving little time to prepare for a meeting with the back-to-back world champions.
Travel Schedule and Preparation Challenges
One drawback of the new Nations Championship is the relentless travel schedule. Wales had just one full training session before the defeat in Argentina, which was far from ideal preparation for Test rugby. Wholesale changes risk creating more problems than they solve, but there are several areas Tandy cannot afford to ignore. If Wales are to remain competitive in Durban, a handful of significant selection calls are unavoidable.
Attack Woes and Midfield Issues
Wales' attack was simply not good enough in Santa Fe, making only three line breaks in comparison to Argentina's 12. Attack coach Matt Sherratt has built his system around a second playmaker at inside centre, but the midfield partnership of Joe Hawkins and Eddie James has yet to provide the fluency Wales need in attack. It goes without saying the biggest challenge Wales will face in Durban is the sheer size and explosive power of the Springboks.
There is not enough go-forward in this Wales team, but there is only so much Tandy can do because those types of players are in short supply. Scarlets centre Eddie James arguably needs to be moved to inside centre which is his best position. James is wasted at 13 where his biggest strength is his size and power. The 23-year-old is capable of getting over the gain line and making big post-contact metres, but he is better equipped to do this wearing number 12 on his back. He is also an underrated ball player with good footwork and a decent offloading game.
Physical Presence in Midfield
Max Llewellyn has yet to establish himself consistently at Test level, but his ability to win the gain line remains an asset Wales have struggled to harness. At 6ft 5in and more than 17st, he offers the sort of physical presence few others in the squad can match. Against South Africa, there is a compelling case for pairing Llewellyn with Eddie James in midfield. Size is no guarantee of success against the Springboks, but matching their power is a prerequisite, and Wales need more ballast in the centre if they are to compete physically in Durban. The current centre partnership isn't working and a change needs to be made.
Fly-half and Back-three Decisions
Tandy will surely also be considering a change at outside-half. Sam Costelow is a talented player, but he was below his best against Argentina, while Dan Edwards did little to seize his opportunity in the victory over Fiji. The two players offer contrasting qualities. Costelow is comfortable playing flat to the line and is at his most effective when operating within a defined structure, while Edwards is a more instinctive player who brings confidence and threat with ball in hand, backing himself to attack what is in front of him. The dilemma for Tandy is whether Wales need the greater control of Costelow or the unpredictability Edwards can provide against the Springboks. But Costelow is the better defender and perhaps Wales might be better served sticking with the Scarlets playmaker - potentially bringing Edwards on in the final quarter.
The back-three will probably need to be changed as well. Blair Murray is a dangerous broken field runner but his lack of height means that he could get exposed badly under the high ball. Wales might be better served putting Ellis Mee to full-back because the aerial game is an area he excels in. Louis Rees-Zammit should come back into the starting XV but Tandy should also consider a start for Mason Grady. The Cardiff wing remains an unfinished product, but his raw attributes are difficult to ignore. His combination of size, power and explosive pace offers Wales something different in attack, while his physicality means he would not be overawed by the demands of facing South Africa.
Forward Pack and Injury Concerns
Up-front there aren't many changes Tandy could make to strengthen the side. Teddy Williams could be considered at second-row but Wales probably need two tighthead locks against the Springboks. Williams may be better served coming off the bench in the second-half. Also, Dewi Lake limped off with an injury and if he doesn't recover in time, Ryan Elias will surely start at hooker.
Steffan Thomas' Wales XV: Ellis Mee; Louis Rees-Zammit, Max Llewellyn, Eddie James, Mason Grady; Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams; Rhys Carré, Dewi Lake, Dillon Lewis, Ben Carter, Adam Beard, James Botham, Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright. Replacements: Ryan Elias, Nicky Smith, Ben Warren, Teddy Williams, Taine Plumtree, Kieran Hardy, Dan Edwards, Blair Murray.
