As the Formula 1 circus arrives in Abu Dhabi for its traditional season climax, Lando Norris should, by rights, be on the cusp of securing his maiden world championship. The McLaren driver holds a commanding position, but the ghosts of championships past serve as a stark warning that the job is far from done.
The Precarious Lead: A Podium is Not a Guarantee
Norris arrives at the Yas Marina Circuit with a 12-point lead over Red Bull's Max Verstappen and a 16-point advantage over his own McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri. The equation is simple: a podium finish will seal the title for the 26-year-old from Somerset. Given McLaren's recent pace, it seems a straightforward task.
Yet, the recent races have shown how quickly fortunes can turn. Without the Las Vegas disqualifications for Verstappen a fortnight ago, the Dutchman would be out of contention. Without McLaren's strategic misstep in Qatar last weekend, the team could already be celebrating. Instead, F1 is treated to its first three-way title decider in 15 years, a scenario ripe for drama and unforeseen twists.
History's Cautionary Tales: When Certainty Crumbled
To understand why Verstappen and Piastri retain genuine hope, one must look back at the history books. The 2010 finale in Abu Dhabi provides a perfect blueprint for an upset. Fernando Alonso entered that race as the favourite, leading Sebastian Vettel by 15 points. Needing only a top-two finish, Alonso's Ferrari team made a critical strategic error, pitting him into traffic. He finished a frustrated seventh.
Meanwhile, Vettel, who started from pole, took a lights-to-flag victory. In a stunning reversal, the German, who had not led the standings all season, snatched his first world title. It was a result that seemed remote at the weekend's start, proving that qualifying prowess and clean strategy are paramount on Abu Dhabi's tricky layout.
The Momentum Shift: Raikkonen's 2007 Great Escape
Three years earlier, Kimi Raikkonen authored one of the sport's great comeback stories. With two races remaining, McLaren's Lewis Hamilton held a 17-point lead over the Ferrari driver under the old scoring system. The rookie seemed destined for the crown.
Hamilton's challenge unravelled with a mistake in China and a gearbox failure in Brazil. Raikkonen, seizing the momentum, won both final races to steal the championship by a single point. This serves as a direct parallel to Verstappen's current position; the Red Bull driver could win his third race in a row this Sunday, demonstrating that end-of-season momentum is a powerful force.
Heartbreak in Adelaide: Mansell's 1986 Tyre Blowout
The 1986 championship offers perhaps the most relatable analogy to Norris's situation. Williams teammates Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet had the fastest car, while Alain Prost in his McLaren was the consistent challenger. Entering the final race in Adelaide, Mansell only needed a podium to claim his first title.
With 19 laps to go, while cruising in third place, Mansell suffered a spectacular tyre blowout on the high-speed Brabham straight, his championship dream exploding with it. A nervous Williams team pitted Piquet as a precaution, handing the initiative to Prost, who held on to win the race and the title. It was a brutal lesson that mechanical fate can intervene at the worst possible moment.
The Modern Stakes: Pressure on the McLaren Pit Wall
These historical dramas place the current McLaren team under a microscope. The Qatar strategy error is a fresh wound, and the moral dilemma of whether Piastri would be asked to assist Norris, should the situation arise, adds another layer of complexity. The team must navigate every permutation perfectly.
Furthermore, the spectre of the 2021 Abu Dhabi finale, where the championship was decided by controversial officiating, looms large. The hope is that this year's champion will be decided solely by on-track action and pit-wall decisions, not race control.
While Norris holds most of the cards, history unequivocally shows that the final furlong of an F1 season is rarely straightforward. Curveballs are thrown. Fortunes change in an instant. How Lando Norris and McLaren bat away those challenges will define his fate when the chequered flag falls on Sunday night.
