Lando Norris heads into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix with a 12-point lead over Max Verstappen and a 16-point advantage over Oscar Piastri, but history suggests the title is far from secure. The McLaren driver needs only a podium finish to clinch the championship, yet past season finales have delivered unexpected twists that turned seemingly safe leads into heartbreak.
In 2010, Sebastian Vettel entered the Abu Dhabi finale trailing Fernando Alonso by 15 points, with Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton also in contention. Vettel won from pole while Alonso, needing second place, fell to seventh after a poor strategy call by Ferrari. Vettel became champion, leading the standings for the first time all season. The lesson: a comfortable points gap can evaporate in one race.
Similarly, in 2007, Lewis Hamilton held a 17-point lead over Kimi Raikkonen with two races left, only to slide off in the pit lane in China and suffer a gearbox issue in Brazil. Raikkonen won both final races to snatch the title by one point. Current McLaren team principal Andrea Stella was then Ferrari's racing director, witnessing the comeback firsthand.
Norris's situation mirrors those past dramas. Verstappen, like Raikkonen, has momentum with two consecutive wins, while Piastri remains a threat despite team orders uncertainty. McLaren's strategy errors in Qatar add pressure. As the 1986 finale showed—where Alain Prost overcame a deficit—nothing is decided until the chequered flag.
