The NFL Coach of the Year award typically rewards the biggest surprise, but this season's chaotic landscape has reshaped the criteria. With multiple teams undergoing dramatic turnarounds, the race is unusually deep, forcing voters to look beyond mere expectations.
Ben Johnson of the Chicago Bears has emerged as a strong contender after fixing quarterback Caleb Williams. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play, and Williams has become more decisive under Johnson's scheme. However, Chicago's defense sits 25th in success rate, relying on unreliable turnovers, which may hinder Johnson's candidacy.
Liam Coen of the Jacksonville Jaguars is another first-year head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. He has revitalised Trevor Lawrence and overseen a defence that now ranks fifth in EPA per play. Coen has also managed to unify a coaching staff filled with first-timers, avoiding the pitfalls that doomed previous inexperienced setups.
In a normal season, either Johnson or Coen would be runaway favourites, but the depth of candidates complicates the vote. Sean Payton, guiding the Broncos to the top of the AFC, is also in contention, alongside other exceptional coaches. The award will likely go to the coach who solved the hardest problems in this unpredictable year.
