This strange and chaotic NFL season has fundamentally reshaped the race for the league's prestigious Coach of the Year award. Traditionally a prize for the manager who orchestrates the biggest surprise turnaround, this year's deep field of exceptional candidates demands a different criterion: rewarding the coach who has solved the most difficult and complex problems.
A Season of Turnarounds Breaks the Traditional Mold
In a typical campaign, the award follows a simple, almost apologetic logic, serving as a collective mea culpa for inaccurate preseason predictions. The coach whose team most exceeds low expectations usually takes the honour. However, the 2024 season has been defined by widespread chaos, with former division winners collapsing and perennial strugglers rising simultaneously. This environment has created an unusually rich pool of deserving candidates, making the selection process far more nuanced than a simple measurement of surprise.
In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the undisputed favourite. Yet, in this remarkable season, he finds himself competing with at least five other outstanding coaches. Here is how the ballot should be structured, based on who has navigated the toughest challenges most effectively.
5. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears (11-5)
Voters have a longstanding affinity for coaches who fix quarterback issues, and Ben Johnson has done more than that with Caleb Williams. Johnson has unlocked the rookie's transcendent talent, building an offensive ecosystem that has allowed Williams to thrive. Since Week 9, the Bears' offense ranks an impressive fourth in EPA per play, showcasing sustained excellence rather than a fleeting hot streak.
Johnson instilled a clear vision in Chicago, emphasising a physical run game, creative play-action, and a structured passing attack. Williams has bought in, becoming more decisive and less reckless. While the offensive success is undeniable, Johnson's candidacy is slightly tempered by a defense that ranks 25th in success rate and relies heavily on unpredictable turnovers. In a less competitive year, he would be the runaway winner, but the sheer depth of achievement elsewhere places him fifth.
4. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Another first-time head coach, Liam Coen, has engineered a rapid revival in Jacksonville. He has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career and has overseen a defensive transformation, with the unit now ranking fifth in EPA per play. Perhaps more impressively, Coen has successfully managed a staff filled with first-timers, a risky strategy that often fails.
When the Jaguars wobbled mid-season, Coen avoided overcorrection. He simplified the approach, centring the offense around Jakobi Meyers and the run game while encouraging Lawrence to use his legs. The result is a seven-game winning streak and the AFC's No. 3 seed. He inherits a minor knock for taking over a talented roster, but his ability to maximise that talent and unify a young staff is commendable.
3. Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Mike Macdonald's entire season hinged on a bold quarterback decision. Moving on from Geno Smith to sign Sam Darnold and pairing him with coordinator Klint Kubiak was a gamble that could have ended their hopes early. Instead, it propelled them. Darnold was an MVP contender through the mid-season, and though his form has dipped, the Seahawks have kept winning.
Macdonald's other masterstrokes include installing the second-ranked defense in the league, for which he calls plays. With a preseason win total set at just seven and a half, Seattle has obliterated expectations, securing 13 wins and the NFC's best point differential. They are now the NFC's top seed, a monumental achievement in a brutally competitive division.
2. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots (13-3)
The transformation in New England under Mike Vrabel transcends a mere turnaround. Last season's Patriots were directionless and talent-poor, seemingly facing a lengthy rebuild around rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Instead, they are AFC East champions with the conference's best point differential, and Maye is an MVP favourite.
While critics point to a soft schedule, that ignores the Patriots' own preseason status as a perceived weak opponent. Vrabel's personnel decisions have been hits, his hiring of Josh McDaniels restored offensive professionalism, and he adeptly handled the defensive coordinator's mid-season absence. The offense now ranks first in EPA per play. Vrabel was tasked with making New England respectable again; he has made them contenders.
1. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
The ultimate test of a head coach is to solve problems and position players for success. No candidate has faced more adversity or solved more problems than Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers' season has been a relentless injury crisis, losing stars like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brock Purdy, and George Kittle for significant periods, and playing all year without Brandon Aiyuk.
Following an offseason cap purge, Shanahan has had to reshape his team weekly. The fact that San Francisco is 12-4 and vying for the NFC's top seed is a minor miracle. He has built the sixth-ranked offense with Christian McCaffrey as the only constant, showcasing remarkable adaptability. The Coach of the Year award should honour the coach who solves the hardest puzzles. In a season defined by chaos, that coach is unequivocally Kyle Shanahan.
