Donald Trump's proposal to charge tolls for clearing the Strait of Hormuz was abandoned within hours, revealing deep strategic confusion in Washington. The US leader's objectives and methods remain clouded by daily U-turns and false boasts, leaving the administration in a worse position than when the conflict began.
Failed Toll Proposal and International Backlash
Trump suggested the US could levy tolls for passage through the strait, but quickly retreated after widespread opposition from shipping firms, his own administration, and regional allies. The idea contradicted the US's stated commitment to freedom of navigation, a cornerstone of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously argued that tolls were incompatible with international law.
Just last week, the 40-member International Maritime Organization (IMO) council, of which the US is an active member, passed a motion reaffirming that passage through the strait should remain toll-free. US Ambassador to the UK Warren A. Stephens vowed to champion freedom of navigation, calling it a bedrock principle of international trade.
Strategic Chaos and Lack of Vision
The toll proposal's rapid abandonment underscored Washington's lack of a coherent strategy for the waterway. Workable alternatives exist, such as models based on the Strait of Malacca or the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, both discussed by the IMO. Iran and Oman, the two littoral states, are willing to engage on these, but the US has not offered any proposal of its own.
Trump attempted to cover his tracks by claiming Gulf leaders had committed to substantial US investment, but this appeared unbankable and fictional, similar to the $350bn recovery plan in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Worsening Position After Five Months of Conflict
Trump's greatest political weakness is his continued reliance on force to reopen the strait, which was accessible until he left negotiations and attacked Iran. After nearly five months of war, he is in a worse position than at the start. About 6,000 sailors remain trapped in the strait, controlled by Tehran, which has drawn strength from the public farewell to its assassinated supreme leader.
The idea that both sides will agree on Iran's nuclear program by 17 August, as outlined in the memorandum, appears fanciful. Iran continues to pummel US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, with the latest cost estimate at $100bn.
Former US nuclear negotiator Rob Malley noted that both sides have groups believing they can bear the costs of escalation. US hawks still think Iran will crumble if its ports are blockaded, while in Tehran, chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf faces daily pressure to explain negotiations with a counterpart that treats agreements as litter.
Broader Gulf Security Debate
The debate about the strait is widening into a broader discussion on Gulf security. Oman's Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi argued in Le Monde that Washington's Iran policy is fundamentally flawed. He said the combination of excessive local defence spending, US bases, and an over-the-horizon presence was maintained at great cost but little purpose, and that the war revealed containment as a myth. The gravest threats to Gulf security, he added, come from outside the region, above all from Tel Aviv.
