Trump's Domestic Support Evaporates as Iran War and Gas Prices Fuel Voter Anger
President Donald Trump's Operation Epic Fury assault on Iran is rapidly eroding his domestic support base, with three newly published charts illustrating a stark decline in his popularity as the November midterm elections approach. The data paints a grim picture for conservatives, highlighting voter concerns over the war's justification, economic impact, and skyrocketing gas prices.
Public Doubts Over Iran Conflict Intensify
As the conflict reaches its one-month anniversary, the American public remains unconvinced about the necessity of the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran. Mixed messaging from the administration regarding the war's true purpose, likely duration, and economic consequences has only deepened skepticism. Recent polls show a significant majority of voters expressing serious doubts about the military engagement, with disapproval ratings climbing steadily over the past four weeks.
A Fox News survey released this week found that 59 percent of Americans now disapprove of Trump's performance as commander in chief, marking a new low for his second term. Similarly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll placed the president's overall approval rating at just 36 percent, underscoring the growing discontent.
Economic Anxiety and Soaring Fuel Costs
The economic fallout from the Iran war is exacerbating voter anxiety, particularly regarding rising living costs. In retaliation for the strikes, Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, causing gas prices to rocket at pumps nationwide. The Fox poll revealed that 86 percent of respondents identify the cost of living as a major worry, while the Reuters survey showed Trump scoring a mere 25 percent approval for his handling of the economy—a key issue that propelled his 2024 re-election campaign.
Data from the American Automobile Association indicates that the average cost of regular fuel across the United States has surged dramatically. If this trend persists and household budgets continue to strain, voters are unlikely to forgive the president when they cast their ballots in the midterms.
Sharp Decline in Presidential Approval
While second-term popularity slides are common for presidents, Trump's decline has been particularly steep. Analyst Nate Silver noted that his average approval rating has plummeted from 52 percent upon taking office in January 2025 to just 40.1 percent this week. Concurrently, his disapproval rating has risen to 56.7 percent, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction.
This opposition appears to be translating into electoral gains for Democrats. The Downballot website reported that left-leaning candidates performed 13 percent better in contested special elections last year compared to the same districts during the presidential race. In a symbolic blow, Democrat Emily Gregory recently won a special election in deep-red Palm Beach County, Florida, where Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence is located.
Deep Animosity Toward the Iran War
The latest polling from Fox and Reuters reveals profound public animosity toward the Iran conflict. Sixty-four percent of respondents told Fox they disapprove of Trump's stance on Tehran, with only 36 percent in favor. Regarding the war itself, 58 percent opposed it, with just 42 percent in support—of whom only 20 percent were strongly in favor.
On the first day of the strikes, public opinion was evenly split at 50/50, but sentiment has since shifted dramatically. When asked how the war is progressing, 47 percent of voters said "well," but only 19 percent described it as "very well." Conversely, 52 percent said it is "not at all well," indicating a lack of confidence in its trajectory.
These findings align with Pew Research Center data, which records a 61 percent net disapproval of the conflict compared to 37 percent net approval. Notably, 44 percent of disapprovers expressed strong opposition to the hostilities, and 59 percent believe Trump was wrong to use military force in Iran.
Conservative Concerns Ahead of Midterms
Trump's woes emerge as conservatives gather for CPAC in Texas, where the midterm elections dominate discussions. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Senate candidate and former chairman of the Republican National Committee, warned that a Democratic victory would spell disaster for the GOP agenda. "We cannot let the left win this election cycle and take away this agenda that we are fighting for every single day," he stated, predicting impeachment proceedings and investigations if Democrats regain control of Congress.
Former congressman Matt Gaetz echoed these concerns, urging Republicans to unite despite internal disagreements over Middle East policy. "We cannot move into the midterms with self-inflicted wounds," Gaetz emphasized. "We have to end this cancel culture that is now occurring on the right. Dissent and disagreement has to be allowed."
The combination of war weariness, economic strain, and plummeting approval ratings presents a formidable challenge for Trump and his party as they brace for a contentious election season.
