Trump's Approval Rating Plummets to 'Death Valley' Levels, Says CNN Analyst
CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, has declared that President Donald Trump's approval rating has descended into what he describes as "Death Valley," reaching a historic low for his second term. This alarming decline shows no signs of recovery and could significantly impact the political future of Vice President JD Vance, potentially undermining a 2028 presidential run.
Approval Rating Hits Record Low Among Independents
On Tuesday, March 31, 2026, Enten highlighted that Trump's net approval rating has fallen to -18 points, marking a new low for his second term. A critical factor in this downturn is his performance with independent voters, where his net approval stands at a staggering -45 points. This figure is notably worse than that of former presidents Richard Nixon and George W. Bush during comparable periods of their second terms.
Enten emphasized that Nixon, at the height of the Watergate scandal, had a net approval of -36 with independents, while Bush, grappling with the complexities of the Iraq War, recorded -37. Trump's current rating of -45 represents a significant drop, underscoring his unprecedented unpopularity among this crucial voter demographic.
Steady Decline Over Recent Months
The analyst detailed a consistent downward trajectory in Trump's approval ratings over the past year. In January 2025, Trump was at plus six points, but by April 2025, he had fallen to minus three points. The decline continued, reaching minus seven points nine months ago, minus ten points in October 2025, and minus thirteen points in January 2026. As of March 31, 2026, he has hit a term two low of -18 points.
Enten attributed this slump not only to Trump's unpopular war in Iran but also to a series of events that have continuously eroded his public support. He noted that even if the war ended immediately, any potential boost in approval would likely be minimal and insufficient to reverse the overall trend.
Comparison to First Term Highlights Sharp Fall
In a stark contrast to his first term, where Trump's approval was rising at this point—with a three-month change up by 5 points—his current three-month change shows a fall to the new term two low of -18 points. Enten pointed out that Trump is now 6 points lower than he was at the same juncture in his first term, further illustrating the severity of his declining popularity.
Impact on Vice President JD Vance's 2028 Prospects
The discussion shifted to the collateral damage of Trump's cratering ratings, particularly on those close to him, such as Vice President JD Vance. Enten cited data from the Kalshi prediction market, revealing that six months ago, 53 percent of users believed Vance would become president in 2028. Today, that percentage has dropped to 37 percent, tying for Vance's all-time low in these predictions.
This decline suggests that Trump's unpopularity is casting a shadow over Vance's political future, potentially hindering his chances in the next presidential election. Enten's analysis indicates that the vice president's prospects are closely tied to the president's approval ratings, with current trends posing a significant challenge.
Conclusion: A Political Abyss with No Clear Recovery
Harry Enten's assessment paints a grim picture for President Trump, with his approval rating firmly entrenched in "Death Valley" and showing no signs of improvement. The data reveals a deeper crisis among independent voters, worse than historical lows set by Nixon and Bush. As Trump's ratings continue to fall, the ripple effects are already impacting Vice President Vance's 2028 ambitions, highlighting the broader political ramifications of this approval slump. The situation remains fluid, but current indicators suggest a challenging path ahead for the Trump administration and its allies.
