The 7 May deadline set by Nigel Farage for Conservative MPs to defect to Reform UK has passed, but the anticipated flood of defections never materialised. Since former home secretary Suella Braverman switched parties on 26 January, no further Tory MPs have joined Reform, despite a watch list of 11 potential defectors identified by The Independent.
Farage set the deadline on 15 January, the same day he welcomed Robert Jenrick to Reform, predicting that the local and devolved elections on 7 May would mark the end of the Conservative Party as a national force. He hoped the deadline would force wavering Tory MPs to make a decision, but only Romford MP Andrew Rosindell and Braverman followed Jenrick.
Other targeted MPs, including Katie Lam, Sir John Hayes, Mark Francois, Esther McVey, and Sir Desmond Swayne, remained with the Tories. Even Tory peers rumoured to be ready to defect, such as Lord David Frost and Lord Stewart Jackson, did not join Reform.
The motivations behind the defections that did occur have been questioned. Jenrick reportedly switched out of ambition, having calculated he could not replace Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader. Rosindell's decision was linked to his local status in Romford, where his councillors were about to defect. Braverman's husband was already a Reform member, and she had become detached from the Tories.
Meanwhile, Reform has faced its own defections, with seven councillors leaving for Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party. The failure to attract a critical mass of Tory MPs has raised concerns among Reform's base about the influence of ex-Tories in senior positions.
