A new poll has revealed that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would have secured a decisive victory in the Gorton & Denton by-election if Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer had not blocked his candidacy. The findings intensify scrutiny over Sir Keir's controversial decision last month, which was reportedly motivated by fears that Mr Burnham could emerge as a leadership threat within the Commons.
Polling Data Shows Commanding Lead
According to the Survation polling conducted for Datapraxis, Mr Burnham would have been supported by 47 percent of voters who were certain to participate in the by-election. This commanding figure would have nearly doubled the 25 percent backing for the Green Party's Hannah Spencer, who ultimately won the contest on February 26. Reform UK's Matt Goodwin, who pushed Labour into third place in the actual election, would have received 21 percent under this hypothetical scenario.
Labour's Internal Conflict
The Labour Party's ruling National Executive Committee refused permission for Mr Burnham to stand as the candidate, with only deputy leader Lucy Powell publicly supporting his case. Sir Keir and his allies argued that the party would risk losing the Greater Manchester mayoralty if Mr Burnham vacated his current position to pursue a parliamentary seat.
This move provoked a public rebuke from Mr Burnham, who stated that his interest in the candidacy was solely focused on countering what he described as the 'divisive politics of Reform UK.' Despite the blockage, Mr Burnham played a prominent role in campaigning for the selected Labour candidate, Angeliki Stogia.
By-Election Outcome and Fallout
The Greens' Hannah Spencer achieved a stunning victory in the by-election, securing a 4,000-vote majority in a constituency traditionally considered a safe Labour seat. Reform UK's Matt Goodwin compounded Labour's woes by pushing the party into third place, a result that has infuriated Labour MPs.
This outcome was seen as damaging to Labour's strategic aim of framing the next general election as a binary choice between Labour and Reform UK. In the aftermath, a jubilant Zack Polanski, a Green Party representative, insisted that the Greens are now on track to win dozens of seats in the upcoming general election.
Knife-Edge Scenario for Mayoral Contest
In a small consolation for Sir Keir, the New Statesman's Britain Predicts model suggests that the Greater Manchester mayoral contest would have been extremely tight if Mr Burnham had stepped down. The model indicates that Reform UK could have narrowly seized the prized mayoral post, with 28 percent support compared to Labour's 27 percent, highlighting the potential risks involved in Mr Burnham's departure from his current role.
These polling results and the subsequent by-election defeat have sparked renewed debate within Labour ranks about leadership decisions and electoral strategy, as the party grapples with internal divisions and external challenges ahead of the general election.
