Labour MPs have issued a stark warning that Prime Minister Keir Starmer has effectively accelerated the timetable for a potential leadership challenge within the party. This dramatic development follows the controversial decision to block Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, from standing as the candidate in the crucial Gorton and Denton by-election scheduled for 26 February.
A By-Election Transformed into a Leadership Referendum
The upcoming by-election is now being viewed by numerous parliamentarians as a de facto referendum on Sir Keir's leadership. This perception places immense pressure on the government, which is widely expected to suffer a defeat in the poll. The Labour Party's selection of a relatively unknown local candidate, Manchester city councillor Angeliki Stogia, after snubbing the high-profile Mr Burnham, has ignited significant internal discord.
Speculation about a challenge to the Prime Minister before the local elections on 7 May has intensified. This follows a vote by a 10-strong group from Labour's ruling National Executive Committee, which included Sir Keir, to deny Mr Burnham permission to contest the Greater Manchester seat. Critics within the party accuse the Prime Minister and his allies of acting for factional reasons, motivated by fears of a leadership bid from the popular mayor as both Labour's poll ratings and Sir Keir's personal approval continue to struggle.
Rivals Emerge as Burnham is Sidelined
With Mr Burnham removed from the immediate picture, attention has swiftly turned to other potential successors. There is now widespread speculation that supporters of Health Secretary Wes Streeting are preparing to launch a bid to replace Sir Keir. Simultaneously, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is also believed to be preparing for a contest, having recently declared, "I'm not dead yet."
One veteran Labour MP summarised the shifted dynamics, stating: "Basically colleagues were looking at something after the local elections on 7 May but by holding the by-election when it has been, the timetable has been brought forward. Why wait?"
Internal Backlash and Briefing Wars
The decision has provoked a furious backlash from senior party figures. Steve Rotheram, the Labour Mayor of the Liverpool City Region, launched an extraordinary attack on Downing Street, criticising "gutless people" within government responsible for anonymous briefings against Mr Burnham.
In a social media post, Mr Rotheram rallied behind his fellow mayor, insisting such briefings "help nobody but our opponents." Both Sir Keir Starmer and Mr Burnham have denied claims that the mayor was pre-warned of the block, and reportedly spoke last Monday to clear the air.
Campaign Crisis and Electoral Fears
The fallout is having a tangible impact on the by-election campaign. MPs claim the number of activists willing to canvass in Gorton and Denton has dropped dramatically since Mr Burnham was rejected. One MP admitted, "I will go once to say I have done it but I am not filled with enthusiasm to help out in a contest we are going to lose."
Labour has launched a campaign to prevent left-wing voters from tactically backing the Greens, fearing a repeat of the so-called "Caerphilly scenario." In that Welsh Senedd seat, Labour came third last year as voters tactically supported Plaid Cymru to keep Reform out. One senior backbencher warned, "If we come third in this seat it will be unacceptable for colleagues. It will just be a precursor to the bloodbath in May."
Alarmingly for Labour, some MPs now view a Green victory as potentially more damaging than one for Nigel Farage's Reform party. An MP explained, "At least if Reform win we can say it is us against Reform, but if the Greens win it will feed into the narrative that voting Green is not a wasted vote and they are a serious alternative around the country."
The Rise of Wes Streeting
Many MPs believe the real beneficiary of Mr Burnham's exclusion is Health Secretary Wes Streeting. "Now that Andy is out of the picture, lots of people are looking at Wes instead," one Labour MP said. Mr Streeting's stock rose significantly after he deftly handled a pre-Christmas row in which allies of Sir Keir briefed that he was plotting a coup.
During a series of media appearances, Mr Streeting fought back memorably, claiming his accusers had launched "just about the worst attack on a faithful I've seen since Joe Marler was kicked out and banished in the final of The Traitors." One MP observed, "What you saw was a politician in a tight spot, who came out fighting, made his case and ultimately won. Ironically, No 10 allowed Wes to show a path to solving our problems."
Angela Rayner's Complex Position
Meanwhile, Angela Rayner is due to speak at a Westminster reception hosted by the new Labour group Mainstream—co-launched by Andy Burnham—just 36 hours before the by-election polls open. MPs suggest she commands the support of the 80 Labour MPs necessary to trigger a leadership contest.
However, her path is complicated. She has been accused of "trying to play both sides" in the Burnham row after declining to sign a letter from Labour MPs calling for the decision to be reversed. One MP noted, "If Angela had supported it we would have had the 80 needed to trigger a leadership vote which would have been quite a statement. But she has tried to have it both ways." Critics on the left also argue she has not used her time on the backbenches to sufficiently distance herself from the government.
While some ministers insist the decision to block Mr Burnham draws a line under months of leadership speculation, the prevailing view among MPs is that it has merely redirected attention to Sir Keir's other rivals, intensifying the pressure on his premiership as a critical by-election looms.
