Iran War Provides Starmer Temporary Shield, But Labour Succession Race Intensifies
Wes Streeting is steadily gaining ground on Angela Rayner in the escalating battle to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader, according to political analyst John Rentoul. Despite public declarations of loyalty, behind-the-scenes manoeuvring reveals a party preparing for potential upheaval.
WhatsApp Mishap Exposes Leadership Preparations
Even as Health Secretary Wes Streeting vocally defended Keir Starmer this week, urging critics to "Give the guy a chance," a revealing WhatsApp message exposed deeper currents. One of Streeting's supporters mistakenly contacted Alan Lockey, the Prime Minister's speechwriter, to inquire about assistance in a future leadership contest.
The message was reportedly sent "in error" by what The Times described as one of Streeting's "outriders" – a term suggesting enthusiastic supporters acting independently, yet simultaneously implying the health secretary is indeed making contingency plans. This incident highlights how instant messaging tempts politicians to commit sensitive thoughts to text, often with regrettable consequences.
Downing Street sources have alleged for months that Streeting is preparing for a leadership election, with some claiming Starmer is so angered by what he perceives as treachery that he plans to sack Streeting in the next cabinet reshuffle.
Strategic Positioning Amidst Crisis
There exists no contradiction between Streeting's public support for Starmer and his private preparations. "I don't want to see Keir challenged in May," Streeting stated in a recent interview. "I don't think that will happen." His position is clear: he won't initiate a challenge, but should someone else trigger a contest, he will be ready to compete.
This messaging serves dual purposes – warning potential challenger Angela Rayner while reassuring his own supporters. Rentoul believes Rayner is unlikely to challenge Starmer after May's elections, regardless of Labour's performance. She would require 81 MPs to publicly nominate her, a threshold that appears increasingly unattainable, particularly since the Iran conflict began.
War Provides Unexpected Political Cover
The Iran war has paradoxically strengthened Starmer's position temporarily. A JL Partners poll conducted exclusively for The Independent revealed voters respond more positively to Starmer when reminded of his policy differences with former US President Donald Trump.
"The war has bought Starmer some time," Rentoul observes, "but the underlying questions about his leadership will not disappear." When Peter Mandelson's unsuitability as Washington ambassador became apparent last month, Labour experienced internal turmoil culminating in the departure of Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff. Although MPs contemplated leadership change, they hesitated, recognizing Rayner would likely win a membership vote.
This suggested Starmer might survive until next year, but the Iran conflict has extended his security further. Nevertheless, doubts persist about whether he will lead Labour into the next general election, keeping succession questions urgent for contenders.
Contenders' Contrasting Weeks
Both leading candidates demonstrated distinct approaches this week. Rayner delivered a "class war" speech urging Labour to "pick more fights," then moderated her tone by recording a podcast with former housing secretary Michael Gove, exploring common ground on leaseholder and tenant rights.
Streeting's week proved more consequential. He appeared statesmanlike in Golders Green following the arson attack on Jewish charity ambulances, condemning the "act of evil." His BBC Today programme performance showcased his communication skills, sparring deftly with presenter Nick Robinson while avoiding bitterness.
Most significantly, newly published British Social Attitudes survey data revealed rising patient satisfaction with the NHS – the gold standard of public opinion research. Although satisfaction remains historically low, the suggestion that the health service is "turning a corner" could substantially benefit Streeting if sustained.
The Path Forward
If Streeting can demonstrate both communication prowess and tangible delivery on healthcare improvements, Labour's soft left – particularly grassroots members – may need to reconsider where the party's interests truly lie. They recognize Rayner's strengths but doubt her viability, and question Starmer's long-term prospects. The answer, Rentoul suggests, may be increasingly apparent as leadership tensions continue simmering beneath wartime political unity.
