Andy Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election has been billed as a seismic moment for the country. The former Greater Manchester mayor is now returning to Parliament, leaving behind the job he has held running the region since 2017. To get there, he convinced voters in the constituency to back his campaign despite a challenge from Reform UK.
Burnham is expected to speak to Keir Starmer over the next few days to try to persuade him to stand down as Prime Minister. Some of Andy Burnham’s campaign messaging being shared in the run up to the Makerfield focused not just on the constituency, but on a promise to bring about a 'new path for Britain', hinting towards his wider ambitions.
How could Andy Burnham end up in Downing Street running the country?
Now he has been elected as an MP in the House of Commons, there are different paths Andy Burnham could take to become prime minister. The least chaotic route for both the Labour Party and the country could be a transition of power between Starmer and Burnham. Facing growing pressure from Labour MPs demanding a change of leadership, Burnham could force a deal with the current prime minister to hand over the keys to Downing Street, setting out a timeline for an orderly change. This option would avoid a potentially damaging Labour leadership campaign, which comes with the risk of Burnham, Starmer and other senior Labour figures picking sides and squabbling for power.
The other routes would be if the current prime minister steps down as leader of the Labour Party, or if a Labour MP with enough support decided to launch a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer. Both scenarios would trigger a leadership contest within the party.
Leadership contest rules
If Keir Starmer resigned as Labour leader, any of the party’s MPs including Andy Burnham could nominate themselves to take over if they had the backing of enough colleagues. They would need support from 20 per cent of their colleagues in the House of Commons - that’s 81 sitting Labour MPs - according to party rules. Several MPs could put themselves forward as long as they have enough support. Nominations from five per cent of Constituency Labour Parties is also a requirement, or three affiliates making up 5 per cent of affiliated membership, including two trade unions.
If Keir Starmer decides to continue as prime minister, a Labour MP could decide to launch a challenge against him. They would also need the backing of 81 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership election, and would be up against other MPs with enough support to run. Once the leadership contest is triggered, a vote takes place among Labour Party members and affiliates. Labour leadership contests usually last months before a winner is announced.
Burnham's challenge
Andy Burnham could choose to challenge Keir Starmer and launch a leadership election, but he would still need to convince enough Labour MPs and party members to support him if he is to go on and win. The timing of any potential Labour leadership contest is something to look out for. That’s because a Greater Manchester mayoral by-election is also set to take place on July 30. Labour will be trying to keep hold of Andy Burnham’s old job running Greater Manchester, but the party is facing growing competition from other parties for votes, such as Reform UK, Restore Britain, and the Green Party. The outcome of the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election could therefore have a major influence on any potential Labour Party leadership election.
