The by-election in Makerfield, a constituency in the north west of England, could become one of the most historic the UK has ever witnessed. The contest is set for June 18 and features a high-profile candidate: Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, who is running for Labour to return to Parliament. If victorious, he is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, though he may not launch his bid immediately. This means the result could influence who becomes Prime Minister.
However, Burnham faces stiff competition from Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, which is campaigning aggressively to win the seat and thwart his leadership ambitions. Adding complexity, Reform is also battling Restore Britain, the party led by Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth. Lowe, a former Reform MP, had a public falling out with Farage and now leads his own party. Restore Britain has gained traction on social media and could siphon votes from Reform, potentially paving the way for a Burnham victory.
Leaked Poll from June 11
A leaked poll conducted for the Labour Party suggests Andy Burnham is on course to win, but only because the right-wing vote is split between Reform UK and Restore Britain. The survey puts Labour at 35%, Reform UK at 24%, and Restore Britain at 13%. This indicates that without the split, Reform might be leading.
Opinium Poll from June 6
An Opinium poll for the Observer shows Reform UK rising to 29%, its highest vote share in three months. Other parties stand at Labour 20%, Conservative 17%, Green 14%, and Liberal Democrat 11%.
Survation Poll from June 4
A Survation poll of over 500 Makerfield voters conducted between May 26 and June 1 shows Burnham extending his lead: Labour 49%, Reform UK 39%, Restore Britain 8%, Green Party 2%, Liberal Democrat 1%, Conservative 1%.
Lord Ashcroft Polling from June 2
Lord Ashcroft polling reveals that only about one in five voters believe replacing Keir Starmer as Prime Minister would improve the Labour government. Nearly half of all voters think a general election should be called if Starmer is replaced, including 70% of 2024 Conservative voters and 87% of Reform UK voters. Majorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters oppose a general election, while Green voters are split.
BMG Research from May 30
A BMG poll commissioned by the i paper shows that only 20% of voters would back Labour in the next general election if Burnham were leading the party, placing it 3% behind Reform UK. Pollster Jack Curry noted that while there is a slight increase in support for Burnham's Labour over Starmer's, a win in Makerfield does not guarantee a turnaround in Labour's fortunes.
Betting Odds from May 27
William Hill odds show Labour as clear favourites: Burnham is 4/11 to win, Reform UK at 5/2, Restore Britain at 8/1, and Greens and Conservatives at 250/1.
Survation Poll from May 23
The first poll in the campaign, by Survation of 504 adults between May 18 and 22, showed Labour at 43%, Reform UK at 40%, Restore Britain at 7%, Liberal Democrats at 4%, Green at 3%, and Conservative at 2%. The combined Reform and Restore vote would have been enough to win if unified.
Candidates in Makerfield
- Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats – Stockport councillor, stood in 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election
- Count Binface, Count Binface Party – by-election veteran, formerly known as Lord Buckethead
- Andy Burnham, Labour Party – former Health Secretary, Shadow Home Secretary, current Greater Manchester mayor
- Dan Clarke, Libertarian Party
- John Dyer, Independent
- Ed Gemmell, Climate Party
- Paul Gould, Independent
- Alan 'Howlin' Laud Hope, Official Monster Raving Loony Party – leader of the party founded with Screaming Lord Sutch
- Robert Kenyon, Reform UK – self-employed plumber, stood in 2024 general election
- Robert Pownall, Independent
- Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain – businesswoman
- Sarah Wakefield, Green Party – Manchester City councillor, replaced Chris Kennedy
- Peter Ward, Rejoin EU
- Michael Winstanley, Conservative Party – former mayor of Wigan
