Polymarket has terminated its paid relationship with former US congressman George Santos as federal regulators investigate whether he illegally bet against his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. The bets were placed on rival prediction market Kalshi after Santos publicly announced his intention to attend the February 24 speech, according to a person familiar with the investigation.
Kalshi detected the suspicious trades and referred them to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has opened a probe into Santos for possible insider trading, a second person said. Both sources spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity. Santos was released from federal prison last October after Trump granted clemency in a fraud case, and by the time of the address he was working as an influencer for Polymarket.
In response to an inquiry, a Polymarket spokesperson said the company was terminating the contract following this week’s revelations. Santos did not respond to requests for comment but wrote on social media that the allegation was “preposterous” and that his legal team was in touch with the Justice Department.
CFTC enforcement director David Miller recently stated that insider trading laws apply to prediction markets and that the agency is pursuing such violations vigorously. Meanwhile, experts note that Santos’s alleged actions may constitute market manipulation rather than insider trading, as they were not based on stolen information. The regulator could bring a civil action resulting in a fine or trading ban.
