Andy Burnham may soon find himself stuck behind a desk in Downing Street thinking: “Why on earth did I want to be Prime Minister?” If he wins Thursday’s Makerfield by-election he is expected to come to Westminster and challenge Sir Keir Starmer. If this son of a telephone engineer ousts the son of a toolmaker he will be confronted with the greatest challenge facing the country since Covid.
Healey's Resignation Shakes Labour
John Healey, once famed for his loyalty, sensationally quit on Thursday because he did not believe the funding for the armed forces is sufficient to keep the country safe. The long-awaited plan to upgrade Britain’s military is in disarray but a strategy is urgently needed ahead of next month’s NATO summit in Turkey.
First Tasks as PM
The first tasks of a Prime Minister Burnham may be asking his new cabinet colleagues to accept even deeper cuts; telling aggressive trade unions that generous pay rises are impossible; convincing the Treasury emergency tax hikes are needed; and making the case to Labour backbenchers who thought they were getting a soft Left PM that it is time to strip away benefit entitlements to rearm the nation.
Both Mr Burnham and his MPs would feel sick in their stomachs. They have spent the last decade condemning the Tories and Lib Dems for the impact of their austerity policies in the wake of the financial crisis; but failing to rebuild the military when it is feared a Russian attack on a NATO member could come as soon as 2030 would look like an unforgivable dereliction of duty.
Internal Party Conflict
The NATO-loathing hard Left will pillory the party for enriching the arms traders rather than using a Labour majority to make historic reforms to tackle the gross inequality which condemns Britain’s poorest citizens to radically shorter lives. Cooler heads in Labour circles will say that this moment is more akin to 1939 than 1945. As the former head of the Army, Lord Dannatt, told the Sunday Express a few weeks ago, it is one thing to have “the best welfare system in the world” but “if it's under Russian domination, it’s a waste of time.”
Rebuilding Labour
Nevertheless, some part of a PM Burnham’s brain would be focussed on the twin challenge of rebuilding Labour. He does not want to live in Downing Street until 2029 and then make way for Nigel Farage. Research by More in Common shows that Sir Keir managed to win the 2024 landslide with the thinnest of support. Seven in 10 Britons and 57% of those who voted Labour voters say the victory was due to the Conservatives’ unpopularity – not because people were endorsing the party’s plans for the country.
Worryingly for Labour, only 35% consider it the party of “working people”. At a time of increased job insecurity when AI is poised to wipe out many roles, this should be when a party dedicated to helping paycheque Britain has a clear sense of identity and purpose; but now 18% of the nation sees Reform UK fulfilling this role.
Early Election Chatter
Extraordinarily, there is chatter over drinks as to whether Mr Burnham would go for an early election. If he beats Reform with a large majority in Makerfield and Labour holds onto the Manchester mayoralty, he will look like a winner against its most feared foe. And if the end of the Starmer-Reeves era – coupled perhaps with the fun of a successful World Cup summer – resets the mood of the nation and puts a rebooted Labour party first place in the polls, calling an election may no longer look nuts. Strategists might well mutter to each other: “Hey, things can only get worse.”
Mr Burnham will remember how badly wounded Gordon Brown was in 2007 when he ducked out of calling an election which had looked imminent. He will not want to commence his premiership with the nickname Bottler Burnham. But the fortunes of the Labour party will be the least of his worries if Vladimir Putin enters an even more crazed chapter of his tenure at the Kremlin. The question of how to rearm Britain is more than a political dilemma; it could be a matter of national survival.
If Reform wins Makerfield on Thursday and Mr Burnham's prime ministerial ambitions are vaporised he may just feel a tremble of relief. The enormity of the challenges facing whoever leads the country forward would crush most mortals. The privilege of leading Britain comes with an epic cost.
