Support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK is showing significant signs of decline, according to the latest polling data and expert analysis. A new year-end survey indicates the party's once-formidable lead has been dramatically cut, prompting speculation that its popularity may have reached its high-water mark.
Polling Data Points to a Sustained Slide
A YouGov poll conducted on 21 and 22 December reveals a stark shift in political fortunes. Reform UK's vote share has fallen by three points to 25 per cent, representing its lowest level in over six months. Meanwhile, both the Labour Party and the Conservatives have gained ground, each rising by two points to 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively. This reduces Reform's lead over Labour from ten points to just five.
Eminent polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted that Reform has been on a "steady decline" since reaching an average peak of 32 per cent in September. He noted the party has been slipping approximately a point per month since that high. "The Tories are now losing 28 per cent of their 2024 support to Reform rather than 34 per cent in September and are up a couple of points overall," Sir John stated, while adding there was "not much consistent sign of a Labour recovery."
Experts Conclude Support is Falling
Other seasoned observers have drawn similar conclusions from the data. Lord Robert Hayward declared the results appear to confirm support for Nigel Farage's party is definitively "in decline." He referenced a separate poll commissioned by former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft, which placed Reform on 25 per cent and the Conservatives just three points behind on 22 per cent. "Both polls show clear Reform decline and Tory rise. I'm confused by Labour figures," Lord Hayward remarked.
This assessment was echoed by pollster Luke Tryl from More in Common, who said, "This definitely does appear Reform are down from their highs." The survey also indicated a reversal for the Greens, whose populist left-wing support fell two points to 15 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats saw a small increase to 15 per cent.
Challenges Coincide with Falling Poll Numbers
The dip in polling coincides with a series of recent difficulties for Mr Farage and his party. The Reform UK leader has faced accusations of using racist and antisemitic language during his school years, which he denies. Furthermore, the party's mayoral candidate for Hampshire, former rear admiral Chris Parry, became embroiled in a racism row after suggesting Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy should "go home" to the Caribbean, despite Lammy being born and raised in London.
Reform has also faced uncomfortable questions over its Russian links following the conviction of the party's former Welsh leader, Nathan Gill, for taking money from Vladimir Putin's regime.
For the main party leaders, the findings may offer a glimmer of hope. Both Sir Keir Starmer and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch enter 2026 under pressure regarding their political futures. However, analysts suggest both will likely require stronger-than-expected results in the May elections across Scotland, Wales, London, and English councils to secure their positions long-term.
