Rishi Sunak faced a double blow on Monday as Nigel Farage announced his return as leader of Reform UK and a new YouGov poll projected Labour winning a historic majority of 194 seats, larger than Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.
The MRP model forecast Labour securing 422 seats, the Conservatives dropping to just 140, and the Liberal Democrats gaining 48. The Tories would lose 232 seats, with a near wipeout in London, where they would retain only four seats from 21, and no MPs in Inner London for the first time.
Farage’s U-turn, having previously said he would not play a major role in the election, threatens to split the right-wing vote, pitting Reform against the Tories on immigration and Europe. He also indicated he would spend less time campaigning for Donald Trump if elected as an MP.
The poll, conducted before Farage’s announcement, puts several Cabinet ministers at risk, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith would lose his seat to Labour, as would Steve Tuckwell in Boris Johnson’s former constituency.
Labour’s projected majority of 194 would be the largest since Stanley Baldwin’s 208-seat majority in 1924. The Liberal Democrats would gain seats such as Wimbledon and Esher and Walton, while the SNP would hold 17, Plaid Cymru 2, and the Greens 2.
