Nigel Farage's week from hell has damaged his reputation among former Tory voters and could end Reform UK's hopes of a majority, experts have claimed. The Reform UK leader is facing a self-inflicted by-election pitting him against parody candidate Count Binface, as well as numerous scandals about donations.
Pollster warns of lost Conservative voters
Discussing Mr Farage's difficult seven days, pollster Luke Tryl claimed the issues could see Reform lose voters it had won from the Tories. Referring to polling on the £5million donation from Thai-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, the More in Common UK Director said: “Amongst his true supporters, it doesn't make much of a difference, but it does make a big difference amongst people who really don't like him.”
“What's interesting is that middle group of people who might consider Reform and one of the interesting things there is that we find is that around half of Conservative 2024 voters say that it had a negative impact on their view of him,” Tryl added. “That group is really important because if he's gonna unite the right behind him to try and get a majority, he needs them on side.”
Two-fold challenge for Farage
Tryl explained the dual problem: “You've got two challenges. It motivates your opponent, that still matters, even if they'd never vote for you because it makes people more likely to go out and vote against you. At the same time, Farage's intention has been basically to replace the Conservatives, and if you've got that chunk of Conservative voters saying it reflects negatively, that's a problem.”
Political scientist Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University echoed Tryl's points, suggesting it could stop Mr Farage entering Downing Street. He said: “For his die-hard fans, this probably reinforces their paranoid ideas about the establishment. For the 10-15% of voters that he needs to add to those die-hard fans, to get him to anything like a majority, or even to be the biggest party at the next election, this is a bit of a red flag.”
By-election decision questioned
Professor Bale also questioned the decision to call a by-election, which has left Mr Farage facing a summer arguing with a man dressed as a bin. He said: “I think it must have seemed like a smart move at the time for about five minutes, until they realised that the other parties weren't gonna fall into the trap that he'd set for them. What's unbelievable is that they didn't game out that possibility. They are clearly such yes men that nobody thought to bring up that possibility.”
Ongoing investigations
Mr Farage is facing a probe by the standards commissioner over a £5million 'gift' he accepted from Harborne but did not declare, as well as questions about funds from the mum of a convicted fraudster. Detectives are understood to be probing two payments of £250,000 by Fiona Cottrell, whose son George is a key ally of Mr Farage.
