Polling expert Sir John Curtice has cautioned Andy Burnham that the strategy behind his overwhelming victory in the Makerfield by-election cannot be easily replicated on a national scale. The warning comes as Labour celebrates a significant win in the Greater Manchester constituency, with Burnham securing a majority of 9,231 votes over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon. The by-election was triggered after former Labour MP Josh Simons stepped aside to allow the Greater Manchester Mayor to return to Parliament.
Burnham's Victory Speech Signals Warning to Downing Street
Following his win, Burnham addressed supporters, stating that the area had 'made a loud cry for change' when it voted Reform in the last election. 'In this campaign, we have begun to answer that, but I do say to my own party, this is a final chance to change,' he added, a remark widely interpreted as a warning to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Burnham is now expected to challenge Starmer for the leadership, aiming to become Prime Minister.
Curtice Highlights Unique Factors Behind Victory
Speaking on the BBC, Sir John Curtice pointed out that the Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats together secured only 3% of the vote in Makerfield. He identified two key elements to Burnham's success: the willingness of non-Reform voters to back Burnham, and his ability to appeal simultaneously to traditional Labour supporters and those dissatisfied with Keir Starmer. 'The question you have to ask yourself is when Mr Burnham becomes prime minister, how easy will that trick be to repeat? Because once he’s his own man, he’s not going to be able to campaign against himself in the way he’s campaigned against Keir Starmer,' Curtice said.
Restore Britain, led by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, secured 7% of the vote, while Reform UK trailed Labour by 20 points. Curtice added, 'Bear in mind the fact that because he is so popular within Manchester, the extent to which his popularity can be extended across the whole of the country. All of this is for Mr Burnham to prove – it looks as if he will get the opportunity to prove it but I don’t think we should assume that there is going to be suddenly a dramatic change in the standing of the Labour party in the national opinion polls.'
The warning underscores the challenges Burnham may face if he seeks to translate local success into national appeal, particularly once he becomes the party leader and cannot campaign against the incumbent.
