With just four days until the crucial Makerfield by-election, polls suggest Labour’s Andy Burnham could be getting help from an unexpected source. The hard-right Restore Britain party, led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, is running in its first Parliamentary by-election since its official launch in February.
Lowe was inspired to form the new party after being booted out of Reform UK last year – with no love lost between him and Reform’s leader Nigel Farage. Building off the support of newly crowned trillionaire Elon Musk and Lowe’s large follower count on X, Restore has positioned itself to the right of Reform on issues such as immigration.
Its policies include rounding up and deporting all legally resident foreign nationals who cannot speak English or ‘fail to integrate’, and the abolition of the asylum system in its entirety. The Mail on Sunday reported today that activists canvassing for Restore in Makerfield had attended a white supremacist summit in Portugal two weeks ago.
What are the polls saying?
Two new polls ahead of Thursday’s by-election put Restore candidate Rebecca Shepherd at a larger share of the vote than Labour’s lead over Reform in the constituency. A More in Common survey for the Sunday Times puts Restore on 8% with Andy Burnham on 45% and Reform’s Robert Kenyon on 40%. Meanwhile, an Opinium poll for the Independent has Burnham on 46% and Kenyon on 41% – while Shepherd is on 7%.
If a similar result emerges on Friday morning, it could signal trouble ahead for Farage as he faces – for perhaps the first time – a serious threat from his party’s right. In a sign of concern from party bosses, the official Reform UK account on X acknowledged the existence of its right-wing rival for the first time last month with the debut of the slogan ‘Vote Restore, get Burnham’.
Election guru Sir John Curtice told the Independent the polls indicate Restore could ‘make the difference between Reform winning or not winning’.
However, it is unclear if all those planning to vote for Restore in Makerfield would otherwise be voting for Reform, or whether they would simply stay at home if Lowe’s party was not on the ballot. Allies of Burnham, who is currently serving as the Mayor of Greater Manchester, are said to be cautiously optimistic about his chances of coming out on top in four days’ time.
The by-election has been described as one of the most consequential in recent British history, with Burnham poised to challenge Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister if he wins.
