Sir Sadiq Khan is on track to win a fourth term as Mayor of London, according to a new Savanta UK survey conducted for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London. The poll of 1,038 adult Londoners, carried out online between 30 June and 8 July, shows Khan's Labour candidacy leading across the capital against all other parties.
Geographical Breakdown
In Inner London, Labour's traditional stronghold, Khan's party commands 40% support, more than double any other party. Even in Outer London, where Reform UK won control of Havering Council in the May local elections, Labour leads with 29%, followed by Reform and the Conservatives both on 19%, the Greens on 16%, and the Liberal Democrats on 10%.
Age and Gender Dynamics
Khan leads among all age groups except those aged 55 and over, where Labour trails the Conservatives 22% to 29%. Among 18- to 24-year-olds, Labour is at 38%; 25-34, 45%; 35-44, 34%; and 45-54, 35%. The gender split shows Labour ahead among both women (35%) and men (32%), with the Greens the only other party reaching 20% among women.
Housing and Income
Labour leads across all housing types except homeowners without a mortgage, where the Tories lead 30% to 26%. Khan's strongest support comes from homeowners with a mortgage (43%), followed by private renters (36%) and social or council tenants (33%). Labour is comfortably ahead across all income groups.
Ethnicity and Education
Khan's party gets 25% of white London voters (tied with Reform), 64% of mixed ethnicity, 36% of Asian background, and 53% of black individuals. Among university graduates, Labour leads with 39%, followed by the Greens at 18%. Among non-graduates, Reform leads with 28%, Labour at 24%, and the Tories at 22%.
Employment and Second Preferences
A third of working Londoners (34%) back Khan, as do 33% of those not working. Dr. Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher at QMUL, noted: "Labour are ahead across nearly all the categories. But they also fall well short of a majority in nearly every category. So, people’s second preference votes will be very important."
The only other party to have selected a mayoral candidate is Reform UK, with former Conservative Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham challenging Khan. The early frontrunner for the Conservative nomination is former London Assembly member Sir James Cleverly.
