Controversy over Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon's past comments about women has damaged his campaign in the tightly fought Makerfield by-election, according to new polling that suggests the contest could be too close to call.
Polling Reveals Impact of Controversy
Research conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy found that reports about Mr Kenyon's comments, which have previously been described as 'misogynistic', are now widely known among voters and are having a significant impact on his candidacy. Mr Kenyon's previous posts included him responding to insulting comments directed at television presenter Carol Vorderman. As a result, Vorderman described Mr Kenyon as a 'little coward' and sent a letter to 6,000 female voters across the constituency.
The Opinium survey of 543 voters, conducted between 3 and 11 June using a mixed online and face-to-face methodology, puts Burnham on 46 per cent and Kenyon on 41 per cent. However, the five-point gap is within the poll's margin of error of just under five percentage points, meaning the race remains highly competitive.
Voter Awareness and Reaction
The data also shows Mr Kenyon's past comments appear to have cut through in the constituency. When voters were asked whether things candidates had said or done during the campaign made them more or less likely to support them, Kenyon recorded a net score of minus eight points, with 30 per cent saying that they were less likely to vote for him compared with 22 per cent who said they were more likely to do so. By contrast, Labour candidate Andy Burnham recorded a small positive net score of plus two points.
The polling found that 73 per cent of voters had heard reports about Kenyon's comments, including around 80 per cent of both Labour and Reform supporters. Among voters aware of the controversy, 45 per cent said it made them less likely to vote for him, compared with just 11 per cent who said it made them more likely to support him. The effect was particularly pronounced among younger voters and among those backing Burnham, while women were more likely than men to say the reports made them "much less likely" to support the Reform candidate.
Burnham's Personal Appeal
The survey also points to the importance of Burnham's personal appeal. On a generic general election voting intention measure, Reform leads Labour by around seven points in the constituency. Pollsters estimate Burnham's personal vote is therefore worth around 12 percentage points to Labour's performance in the by-election. Only eight per cent of voters remain undecided, and further questioning did little to alter the headline figures, suggesting most voters have already made up their minds. Supporters of both main candidates also show similarly high levels of commitment, with roughly three-quarters certain to vote for their chosen candidate.
The poll suggests that a split on the political right may also be helping Labour's chances. Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd is polling at around seven per cent, a figure larger than Burnham's current lead over Reform.
Carol Vorderman's Intervention
In her letter to voters, Carol Vorderman highlighted a series of historic posts attributed to the Reform candidate, including comments about women rugby players, suggestions that women cannot drive or referee football matches, anti-abortion remarks, and a post in which Mr Kenyon described himself as "sexist". She also referenced a December 2021 exchange in which another social media user directed a crude sexual remark at her, to which Mr Kenyon replied that the individual was "only saying what we're all thinking".
Vorderman said the issue was "not about one tweet" but what she described as a wider pattern of behaviour towards women. "I want to talk to you, woman to woman, about the Reform candidate standing in your by-election, Rob Kenyon, and how he thinks about us. Because I think it matters," she wrote. Mr Kenyon has rejected suggestions that the offence was intended, describing the post about Vorderman as "a crude attempt at a joke".
Reaction and Defence
In response to the poll, Carol Vorderman said: "As women, we should not have to accept a culture where disrespectful or misogynistic attitudes are dismissed as 'banter' or brushed aside as irrelevant. It's proven time and time again that bad online behaviour encourages abuse of women in the everyday world, so I'm pleased that the strong women of Makerfield are appalled by Kenyon's comments and how the little coward refuses to apologise to anyone. Also this week calling Ant Middleton 'one of my heroes' after Middleton was jailed for 'common assault of a female police officer' in 2013. It tells you all you need to know about Kenyon."
Speaking earlier in the campaign, Kenyon said: "I'm not a polished politician. I am rough around the edges. I have made mistakes in my life." Asked whether he wished to apologise, he said he believed he had already addressed the matter and argued that "no offence was meant". Mr Kenyon has subsequently rejected repeated offers to apologise to Carol Vorderman, most notably when he was confronted about the social media posts on a special edition of BBC Question Time. Audience members returned repeatedly to the issue. One declared: "I'd rather have a career politician than a plumber who is sexist."
In response, Kenyon insisted he would not accept the label. He acknowledged making mistakes. He said comments made 15 years ago did not reflect who he is today. He spoke about being raised by his mother, grandmother and older sister. "I've got nothing but respect for women," he said. At the Manchester Evening News hustings this week, Mr Kenyon was laughed at by the audience when he said that Reform would protect women's rights.
A Reform UK spokesman defended the candidate, describing Carol Vorderman as "a left-wing bad faith actor" and arguing that voters were more concerned about issues such as women's safety, immigration and public services. The party said Mr Kenyon's direct style was precisely why he would be "a straight-talking, effective voice for normal working people in Makerfield".
Consistent Findings
The findings of this new poll are broadly consistent with a separate one published by The Times, which puts Burnham on 45 per cent, Kenyon on 40 per cent and Restore Britain on 8 per cent. That survey, conducted by More in Common and UCL Policy Lab, also found Burnham's lead was smaller than Restore Britain's vote share, reinforcing suggestions that Rupert Lowe's insurgent party could prove decisive in preventing Reform from taking the seat despite the constituency's underlying rightward drift. The Times poll likewise pointed to Burnham's personal appeal as a key factor in the race. While Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage and Kenyon all recorded negative net favourability ratings among local voters, Burnham was the only leading political figure with a positive score.
Pollsters said the mayor's personal brand appeared to be offsetting wider dissatisfaction with Labour and helping keep the contest competitive despite Reform's strong position in national polling.
Expert Analysis
James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs Research at Opinium, said: "Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield by-election campaign ahead, but narrowly so. Labour's five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain's current vote share, suggesting that a divided anti-Labour vote may be enough to deliver victory this time, but could leave Burnham vulnerable in future general elections."
Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy, said the results showed "every vote will count" and argued that Burnham remained the strongest challenger to Reform in the constituency.
Currently, every official poll taken during the campaign has Mr Burnham in the lead. The bookmakers, as well, are predicting an over 80% likelihood of Burnham being Makerfield's next MP. However, pollsters have warned that the numbers still indicate the constituency is on a knife edge and was difficult to predict.
Much will depend on Reform and Labour's ground game, and whether or not support for Restore switches to Reform, or indeed if support for Restore has been underestimated in the polling. The leader of Restore Rupert Lowe has come under significant pressure amid claims he is splitting the vote and letting Burnham into parliament. He shows no sign of telling people to vote otherwise however.
While support for Labour in the area collapsed during the recent council elections, with Reform being the largest recipient, the so-called Burnham factor appears significant. The Mayor of Greater Manchester took 44,957 votes in Wigan during the mayoral elections in 2024. Across Greater Manchester as a whole, Burnham was re-elected with 420,749 votes (63.4%).
If Mr Burnham does win, the likely date for the Greater Manchester Mayoral Election to replace him is the 30th July. Burnham is widely expected to campaign in that election and wait for the result before any leadership challenge aimed at replacing the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer has made clear he will fight any attempt to replace him.
With both major campaigns reporting strong voter commitment and relatively few undecided voters remaining, the final outcome is likely to depend on turnout and whether Reform can overcome both the impact of the Kenyon controversies and the challenge posed by Restore Britain's presence on the ballot.
