Conditions such as type 2 diabetes and heart disease could be prevented after scientists developed a pioneering tool that identifies individuals most at risk. Researchers from Queen Mary University of London (QMU) and the Berlin Institute of Health (BIH) have created a system capable of predicting the likelihood of developing 18 diseases caused by being obese or overweight.
Obesity Epidemic in the UK
Figures indicate that obesity is the second biggest preventable cause of cancer in the UK, behind smoking, as the so-called 'obesity epidemic' plagues Britain. Around 28 per cent of adults in England are obese, classified by the NHS as having a BMI over 30, while a further 36 per cent are estimated to have a BMI over 25, placing them in the overweight bracket. Along with type 2 diabetes and heart disease, other complications caused by excess weight include stroke, gout, arthritis, high blood pressure, and liver disease.
Development of OBSCORE
Researchers believe they may have found a way to curb the surge in obesity complications through a new tool called OBSCORE, hailed by experts as a 'very important step'. It was developed using data from 200,000 participants in the UK Biobank, a resource containing medical information of volunteers, allowing analysis of over 2,000 health measures including blood tests, body measurements, and lifestyle factors. From this, the team identified 20 key indicators that could accurately predict the risk of developing the 18 obesity-related complications.
These indicators include basic characteristics such as age and sex, lifestyle factors like smoking, and self-reported measures on overall health and longstanding illness. Symptoms such as chest pain, abdominal pain, and joint pain, as well as family history of heart disease, were also found to be important in predicting risk. Alongside these, blood tests and several routine measurements, such as blood sugar, cholesterol levels, liver and kidney function, uric acid levels, blood pressure, and body fat distribution, were also crucial.
How OBSCORE Works
The researchers analysed each factor's link to serious complications—for example, chest pain may indicate underlying disease—and combined all these risks into the OBSCORE tool, which estimates a person's 10-year risk of developing 18 different diseases. They found that together, these factors painted a clearer picture of a person's health than BMI alone, as those with similar or the same BMI could have different risks of developing disease. Furthermore, many individuals identified as high risk for developing complications from their weight were overweight rather than obese, meaning they could be overlooked under current guidelines that rely heavily on BMI.
Expert Comments
Speaking to reporters in London, Professor Claudia Langenberg, director and professor of medicine and population health at QMU, warned that we are 'living in the face of a global obesity epidemic'. But she said that the OBSCORE tool 'can help us to manage obesity and prevent its complications'. Julia Carrasco-Zanini, a lecturer in multiomic science at QMU, explained that the tool could also be useful for the NHS. She said: 'This is an open access tool which we have developed to enable and accelerate the engagement with different policymakers, health economists, researchers, and so on, to enable assessment of how and if this tool could be implemented in a way that would lead to the capacity to benefit in the context of the NHS.'
The researchers also suggested that the OBSCORE tool could be useful for deciding who should be given priority access to weight loss remedies such as GLP-1 drugs, like Ozempic and Mounjaro. Professor Langenberg continued: 'With obesity affecting a growing proportion of the global population, preventing its long-term health complications has become a major challenge for healthcare systems. Our work shows how deeply phenotyped large-scale health data can be used to develop data-driven frameworks that identify individuals at higher risk of developing complications and may help support more risk-based approaches to manage obesity.'
Dr Kamil Demircan, DFG Walter Benjamin fellow at QMU and BIH, added: 'Two people with similar body weight can have very different risks of developing diseases such as diabetes or heart conditions. By systematically analysing a wide range of health factors in a data-driven manner, we identified a small set of factors that together may help detect individuals at highest risk earlier, providing a clearer picture of their future risk for obesity-related conditions.'
Expert Reactions and Limitations
Experts not involved in the study were positive but cautious on the findings. Naveed Sattar, professor of cardiometabolic medicine and honorary consultant at the University of Glasgow, said the tool could 'offer clinical value'. However, he highlighted concerns about the study's limitations, including that many of the risk factors the team highlighted are already well-established. The researchers also admitted OBSCORE has several limitations and said it needs further testing among a wider group, as volunteers on the UK Biobank are healthier than average.
Broader Context
Obesity-related conditions not only put extra pressure on health services but also drive people out of the workforce, adding extra costs to the welfare bill. Earlier this year, researchers suggested that excess weight is the 'major driving force' between 61 commonly occurring and potentially life-threatening conditions, including kidney disease, osteoarthritis, and diabetes. Currently, at least nine million people in the UK live with two or more long-term conditions that could be prevented by losing weight. Two in three Britons are now classed as overweight or obese.
The arrival of GLP-1 drugs has transformed obesity treatment, offering dramatic weight loss and other health benefits that were largely out of reach with diet and exercise alone. However, experts have warned the benefits of weight loss jabs may be short-lived once treatment ends, with the majority of users regaining the weight within two years of stopping treatment. Obesity has been linked to at least 13 types of cancer and is the second biggest cause of the disease in the UK, according to Cancer Research. It has also fuelled a 39 per cent rise in type 2 diabetes among under-40s, with 168,000 young Britons now living with the condition.
