The winter parliamentary break is approaching, but before then, the Albanese government is scrambling to secure deals on two major fronts: tax changes with the Greens and National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) reforms with the Coalition. The outcome remains uncertain, with the possibility of securing both, one, or none before politicians leave Canberra in early July.
Government under pressure
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers have framed their negative gearing and capital gains tax changes as a response to the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation, aiming to curb populist economic anger. However, the government has continued to slide in the polls, while One Nation claims to have raised over $4 million from thousands of donors through its "fire the liar" campaign, which focused on an alleged broken promise narrative.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, despite struggling for attention against Hanson, has intensified his criticism of Labor's "assault on aspiration" and "half-arsed" business carve-outs. The government is keen for a win and to pass its package this sitting fortnight before the long winter break, hoping to spend the following weeks highlighting positives rather than haggling over negatives.
Greens and Coalition dynamics
The Greens are open to Labor's tax changes and could finalise a deal early this week. However, they are furious about the government's proposed NDIS cuts. Conversely, the Coalition opposes the tax changes but supports the NDIS reforms. This creates a complex bargaining environment where Labor might normally secure deals with each party on their preferred issues, but the intensity of opposition could lead to blocking tactics.
Labor and the Greens remain in productive discussions on tax, with a partial backdown on ministerial discretion for Chalmers following Greens criticism. However, the Greens are expected to resist the NDIS changes vigorously. They believe an inquiry into the NDIS overhaul, due to table a delayed report on Tuesday, will be extended. Meanwhile, the Liberals want a longer inquiry on tax, leading to brinkmanship on all sides.
NDIS concerns and national cabinet
Concerns about the NDIS changes extend beyond the Greens. Following weeks of harrowing Senate testimony on the effects of cuts on the disability community, opposition NDIS spokesperson Melissa McIntosh warned against "the rush to cut expenditure," stating that "people are not line items on a spreadsheet." Whispers suggest some Labor MPs are also uneasy, with a Labor-led committee report describing the changes as "retrogressive."
On Monday, Albanese will convene a national cabinet meeting, with the fuel excise cut topping the agenda. The states and territories will be asked to forego GST revenue to help fund petrol relief. It is likely that premiers and chief ministers will also raise alarm over the NDIS changes and how states will deliver "like-for-like" services.
Financial implications and alternatives
The argument that delaying NDIS legislation could delay $17 billion in expected savings has not swayed the Greens. Senator Nick McKim criticised "$33 billion a year just in negative gearing handouts for people with two or more properties," while Senator Larissa Waters claimed $17 billion could be raised through a gas tax—an option Labor has ruled out.
The focus this fortnight will be on deal-making. It remains unclear whether the government will secure two deals and enter the winter break on a high, or none, facing a long wait until mid-August for another chance to change its fortunes.
