Professor Sir John Curtice has said the odds are against John Swinney's Scottish National Party winning an overall majority in the Holyrood election, despite the party being set to 'gobble up' constituency seats. The polling expert from the University of Strathclyde said the SNP is 'not quite far enough' ahead with voters to secure more than half the seats.
Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland, Sir John noted that key battles in a 'handful of seats' could deny the SNP an outright majority. He suggested the Conservatives might 'just hang on to a handful of constituency seats' while the Liberal Democrats could make 'a handful of gains'. The Greens and Reform UK also pose a threat, meaning 'there are just a relatively small number of contests where the other parties are going to hang on'.
A YouGov MRP poll projects the SNP will win 62 seats, three short of the 65 needed for a majority. Reform UK could become the second largest party with 19 seats, ahead of Labour on 17. The Scottish Greens are predicted to win 16 seats, their best ever result, while the Tories could slump from 31 to seven seats. The Liberal Democrats might double their tally to eight.
However, Sir John cautioned that forecasting individual seats is 'very, very difficult'. He said if the 'cookie were to crumble just slightly in the SNP's favour', they might still achieve a majority, but 'if the polls are right the odds are against it'. An Ipsos poll also shows the SNP leading, but with support falling back slightly, potentially denting confidence in achieving a majority.
