Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay has declared he will "absolutely not" lose his seat at the Holyrood election, pushing back against projections from a leading pollster. Mr Findlay said he aims to prove the experts wrong and secure his return to the Scottish Parliament on Thursday.
Pollster's Prediction Challenged
Professor Sir John Curtice, widely regarded as Scotland's foremost polling expert, forecast last month that if the Conservatives win the Eastwood constituency, the party could forfeit a seat on the West Scotland regional list, where Mr Findlay is standing. However, the Scottish Tory leader, who is not contesting a constituency seat, expressed determination to surpass expectations as he campaigned alongside Jackson Carlaw in Eastwood. Mr Carlaw has served as the area's MSP for a decade.
When asked whether he feared that a victory for Mr Carlaw might cost him his own seat, Mr Findlay told the Press Association: "Absolutely not. I want Jackson to win this constituency, and I'll be back at Holyrood alongside him, along with a top team of conservative MSPs who will do what we've done for the past decade-plus, and that is take the fight to the SNP."
Findlay's Confidence in Campaign
Mr Findlay acknowledged the expertise of pollsters and commentators but noted that polling "changes from day to day." He added, "I've lost count of the number of polls, and it's my job to prove him (Professor Curtice) wrong and to show that we are the only party capable of stopping that SNP majority, and the way you do so is to use your peach-coloured ballot paper for the Scottish Conservatives."
Under Holyrood's proportional voting system, voters cast two ballots: one for a constituency MSP and one for a regional list. Winning a constituency seat makes it more challenging for a party to secure additional regional seats. In Mr Findlay's case, a Conservative victory in Eastwood—part of the West Scotland region—could hinder his chances on the regional list, where he tops the Tory list.
Historical Context and Current Polls
In the 2021 election, the Conservatives won the Eastwood constituency and three list MSPs, becoming the second-largest party at Holyrood. However, current polls suggest the party has slipped to fourth place behind the SNP, Reform UK, and Labour. Despite this, Mr Findlay remains "upbeat" and "optimistic" about his prospects.
He told PA: "We are used to being written off by all the experts, and we've proved them wrong in 2021 and 2016. In both of those elections, we came second at Holyrood, and critically, our party stopped the SNP from getting a majority. That's because pro-UK voters across Scotland recognised that only we could stand up to the SNP, and they backed us on their peach-coloured ballot paper. I would urge them to do so again on Thursday."
A Scottish Labour spokesperson responded: "In Eastwood, and in seats across Scotland, if you want to reject Reform, beat the SNP and change the country, the only vote you need to cast is for Scottish Labour."
