Scottish Conservatives leader Russell Findlay could lose his seat at the Holyrood election in May, despite his party gaining in the polls. Findlay has opted not to contest a constituency and is instead relying on being elected via the West Scotland regional list.
However, if Findlay's Tory colleague Jackson Carlaw wins the Eastwood constituency in Renfrewshire, it would make it unlikely for the party to gain an additional MSP through the regional list. Carlaw, a former leader of the party, is well-known in Eastwood and is considered to have a strong chance of retaining the seat.
The Tories have seen a slight uptick in recent polls, sitting at around 10 or 11 percent. Without a further increase in popularity, Findlay could be vulnerable, according to analysis by Professor John Curtice for The Times. When asked about the prospect of losing his seat, Findlay told The Times: "I'm fighting for every vote and I'm confident."
Meanwhile, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that the Scottish Tories' manifesto pledges would require "substantial cutbacks" to services. The party has promised significant tax and business rate cuts, funded by reductions in disability benefits and cuts to back-office functions in the civil service.
The IFS noted that the benefits squeeze would fund about £2.1 billion of the £6 billion needed, but finding the remaining £4 billion from back-office costs rather than service cuts is "not credible."
