This is a defining week for Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, the Labour Party, and Britain. But what about Nigel Farage? Thursday's Makerfield by-election is the first major test of the Reform leader's ambition of becoming the next prime minister.
Farage's Political Journey
Don't be fooled by Mr Farage's outsider persona, or his remark about not seeking to gain the keys to No 10 for the "office" or "title". The Home Counties born, privately educated, former City trader is a formidable political orator and operator and, as much as he tries to distance himself from it, part of the establishment he so often rails against.
But is he just lucky? Rarely seen without a pint and a fag, he has risen on a wave of populism after the Brexit referendum (which he orchestrated) and been the major beneficiary of Labour's shambolic two years in power. He has assembled what he calls an opposition front bench - consisting almost exclusively of former Tory ministers - but has forged a reputation as an insurgent. Save from being an MEP and two years as an MP (succeeding at the eighth attempt) he has virtually zero experience of frontline politics.
Makerfield: A Classic Test
Thursday's result should be the high-water mark for Reform. Makerfield overwhelmingly voted leave at the referendum and is a predominantly white working class constituency - a classic "left behind" Northern outpost. With Labour on its knees and ego-driven Burnham positioning himself as the messiah, this should be Farage's finest hour.
He has seen off plenty of adversaries over the years. Brexit humiliated David Cameron and triggered his resignation as PM; he defeated old foe Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, who sloped off in 2019; he has outlived Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak and reduced the Conservative Party to an irrelevance. Seeing off Burnham in his own backyard would be his biggest scalp yet.
The Restore Party Factor
But few believe Farage when he says, when asked if he wants to become prime minister: "Not for the sake of the office or the title because I could not give a damn about that. It's not about what I become in terms of a personal status. It's about what I can do." Rupert Lowe would beg to differ.
Farage has fallen out with allies, aides, and confidants during his time leading Ukip, the Brexit Party, and Reform. How ironic that Mr Lowe, who has described Farage as a "coward and a viper" and whose leadership style he says is "messianic", is likely to be the man to rain on his parade. Polling suggests his pop-up Restore Party, boosted by online support from Elon Musk, is likely to split the vote handing Burnham a narrow victory.
Analysis puts Labour just 5 points ahead of Reform in knife-edge Makerfield, with Restore on 8% - more than enough to deny Burnham victory if they switched their votes to Farage. The split on the right means it is increasingly likely Restore could be the deciding factor in swinging Thursday's knife-edge contest, allowing Burnham to return to Parliament to mount a coup against lame duck PM Starmer.
Personal Vendetta
Lowe was elected as a Reform MP in the 2024 general election, but was thrown out of the party after a very public falling out with Farage and Zia Yusuf. He went on to set up Restore last year. It was officially launched as a pressure group in June last year and as a political party in February this year. Lowe will deny personal animosity is the driving force behind Restore in Makerfield, but revenge is a dish best served cold. Should he help Burnham win it would infuriate Farage beyond belief, secretly delight mischievous Lowe, but continue the pain for Britain. Make no mistake, this is personal.
