Colombians are voting in a presidential runoff that is expected to trigger a dramatic shift in the country's decades-long armed conflict, now at its most violent point since the 2016 peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc).
Frontrunner Promises Military Confrontation
Polls show the frontrunner is far-right lawyer and millionaire businessman Abelardo de la Espriella, who has vowed to abandon President Gustavo Petro's 'total peace' plan of negotiating the disarmament of all criminal organisations. Instead, he promises a return to full-scale military confrontation with armed groups.
De la Espriella's opponent is leftwing senator Iván Cepeda, the main architect of 'total peace', who argues for continuing the plan with 'necessary changes'. Cepeda led polls throughout most of the campaign but was defeated in the first round three weeks ago and has since struggled to attract centrist voters.
Petro Rejects Preliminary Count
At the opening of polling stations, President Petro displayed his ballot showing a vote for Cepeda and urged Colombians to 'vote, whatever their choice'. He rejected 'interference by foreign leaders', a reference to US President Donald Trump, who endorsed De la Espriella while describing Cepeda as a 'radical left Marxist'.
Petro announced he would not accept the preliminary vote count released by the National Civil Registry, as he controversially did during the first round. Instead, he said he would only recognise the outcome of the official scrutiny process, expected to take about two more days. Three weeks ago, Petro alleged fraud in the preliminary count without presenting evidence, drawing widespread criticism. Historically, the difference between the preliminary and official counts in Colombian elections has been less than 1%.
Far-Right Wave in Latin America
The election, in which more than 41 million Colombians are eligible to vote, is expected to deliver another victory for a far-right candidate advocating an iron-fist approach to crime, following examples in Peru and Chile. Amid what many analysts see as a new wave of far-right victories across Latin America, a De la Espriella presidency would leave only Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay and Guatemala under leftwing governments.
Sandra Borda Guzmán, an associate professor of political science at Los Andes University in Bogotá, said De la Espriella successfully tapped into two trends: presenting himself as an anti-establishment 'outsider' and promising quick solutions to violence. He even promised to restore state control over territories dominated by criminal groups within 90 days, though he later backtracked, telling Radio Caracol: 'I never said I would solve the security problem in 90 days.'
Voter Perspectives
De la Espriella, who launched his legal career defending leaders of rightwing paramilitary militias, maintained his goal during his first three months in office would be to 'capture or kill' 10 major narcoterrorist and organised crime leaders. 'Between the international trend favouring candidates who present themselves as anti-political figures and Colombia's domestic security situation, that combination has helped him significantly,' said Guzmán.
Although violence remains far below levels recorded before the 2016 peace deal, the past year has been the most violent since the agreement. Miguel Bermúdez, a 40-year-old business administrator from Cartagena, said he would vote for De la Espriella largely because he is an 'outsider' despite his history as a lawyer for the rich and powerful. 'For a long time, I've been looking for something that feels fresh. I'm tired of that same old political narrative,' said Bermúdez.
Kátia Outten, a 57-year-old dentist from San Andrés, said she would vote for Cepeda because 'he understands the needs of ordinary people'. During his presidency, Cepeda's backer Petro expanded social programmes and increased the minimum wage. The poverty rate has fallen to its lowest level since records began in 2012. Outten also decided not to vote for De la Espriella due to what she sees as his sexist views, including a radio interview in which he claimed to have won support among female voters because of the size of his penis. 'Women make up just over 50% of the population. If we go out and vote with women's empowerment in mind, we can show that all of that rhetoric has no basis,' she said.
