When Sir Keir Starmer moves out of Downing Street he will have the comfort of knowing that he will not go down in history as the last Labour Prime Minister. But from the moment that Andy Burnham takes his seat at the cabinet table, he will feel he is in a battle for the soul of the country. In Nigel Farage, he faces a would-be prime minister who has declared war on the political establishment.
Farage Casts Himself as Anti-Establishment Champion
This is not normal politics. In the long lead-up to the Brexit referendum there was a passionate debate about whether Britain could win a better future outside the European Union; people could fervently disagree but still respect the integrity of their opponents' convictions. Not so this time. Mr Farage has pitched the Clacton contest as a “people versus the establishment by-election”. He claims the “establishment have now decided that they can't beat us fairly, so they've chosen to use foul means”.
As scrutiny of donations received by Mr Farage and other Reform UK figures intensifies, he will portray his party as the people’s army who are under merciless attack from a ruthless elite. This conflict will not stop when the Clacton result is declared next month. It will rage all the way to the general election which must be held no later than August 2029.
Burnham Faces Two Determined Rivals
Mr Burnham has cast himself as an easygoing pragmatist who enjoyed working with people from different political tribes in Manchester. But he will find in the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch and Mr Farage two rivals who loathe Labour and are determined to drive the party out of power. Politics is always a brutal business but Labour, the Conservatives and Reform are all in a battle for survival. If Mr Farage’s Clacton gamble goes badly wrong and the Reform project goes kaput, there will be wild rejoicing, both in Downing Street and in the Leader of the Opposition’s office.
Just because Labour and Conservatives are not standing candidates in Clacton, this does not mean they will not attack Mr Farage. Far from it. They will ridicule the by-election as a self-indulgent political stunt intended to distract attention from pressing questions about giant donations. Strategists for the two parties will try and fix in people’s minds the idea that Reform has a sleaze problem and that Mr Farage cannot offer the country the stability a prime minister must provide.
Polling Shows Farage's Vulnerability
More in Common polling found 61% of Britons think Mr Farage is in politics for himself, compared with 43% for Mr Burnham and 38% for Mrs Badenoch. Nearly six out of 10 Britons (57%) say the disclosure that Mr Farage received a £5 million gift from a billionaire has damaged their view of him.
The Tories will do everything they can to win back former supporters who have flocked to Reform. Conservative campaigners will hope that Mrs Badenoch’s opposition to ECHR membership and net zero policies – when combined with her promise of bold measures to bring down benefits spending and trigger growth – will restore the support at the general election of many of the Right-wing voters who backed Reform in the locals.
And Labour will do all it can to intensify Left-wingers’ fear and loathing of Reform so they will shun the Greens and the Lib Dems and unite behind Mr Burnham’s party to keep Mr Farage out of power.
Farage's Charisma Remains a Threat
Despite the dangers for Reform, the Clacton election remains an opportunity for Mr Farage to rekindle a revolutionary spirit in his party and excite his fans with a vision of him moving into Downing Street. Recent by-elections demonstrated that few if any Britons possess his charisma on the campaign trail. The Reform candidates in Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton and Makerfield were all devoted to overturning the establishment but none matched the glee Mr Farage exhibits when talking to friendly voters in a pub.
The connection he has forged with millions of Britons who despair at the state of Westminster, the economy, the armed forces, the NHS and our high streets is real. Reform is top of the polls because it is led by someone who shares both voters’ distress at the signs of decline and their enduring love for this country.
Mr Burnham and Mrs Badenoch will want to seize this moment of vulnerability for Reform and torpedo Mr Farage’s chances of entering Downing Street. But if they are to flourish in the long-term, they must understand why so many Britons rushed to join an insurgent party where they felt seen and heard.
