The government's flagship 'one in, one out' migration agreement with France has been labelled a failure after official statistics revealed Britain has accepted more migrants than it has returned.
Deal Falls Short of 'Equal Number' Promise
Figures from the Home Office show that between September and December, the UK returned 193 people who had crossed the Channel in small boats under the terms of the deal. However, over the same period, 195 asylum-seekers who had not previously attempted to enter illegally were permitted to come to Britain from France through the scheme.
This imbalance contradicts the Home Office's original assertion that the arrangement would involve an 'equal number' travelling in each direction. The agreement, negotiated by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron last summer, has faced multiple setbacks including legal challenges and the farcical situation where two removed individuals simply returned via small boats shortly afterwards.
Crossings Remain Near Record Levels Despite Deterrent Aim
Ministers had hoped the threat of rapid return to France would act as a powerful deterrent. However, the final tally for 2025, released on Thursday, confirmed it was the second-worst year on record for small boat arrivals.
A total of 41,472 migrants reached British shores in dinghies during the year. This figure is only 9% below the all-time record of 45,774 set in 2022 and represents a 13% increase from the 36,816 who crossed in 2024. People-smugglers have adapted by packing ever larger numbers into bigger vessels.
Since Labour came to power in July 2024, 64,714 people have arrived in 1,095 dinghies. Many continue to be housed in approximately 200 hotels across the country, a costly accommodation solution that has sparked local protests following a spate of violent and sexual crimes.
Political Reaction and Government Defence
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp told the Daily Mail: 'It is a joke that under Labour’s deal more immigrants have been let in than have been removed. In any case, removing under 200 immigrants when over 40,000 have arrived so far this year is clearly no deterrent at all. No wonder the numbers have surged since the election.'
He advocated for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and deport all illegal immigrants within a week of arrival. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage echoed the criticism, stating: 'Smash the gangs is a complete disaster, the one in one out deal is a farce and the numbers coming over are huge. Many of the young men that have arrived last year will do us great harm.'
The Home Office admitted 'The number of small boat crossings are shameful and the British people deserve better.' However, a spokesman defended the government's actions: 'We have removed almost 50,000 people who were here illegally, and our historic deal with the French means those who arrive on small boats are now being sent back.'
On the specific deal, the spokesman added: 'Under this landmark agreement, those who arrive on small boats are now being returned directly to France. We are currently scaling up this pilot. As well as removing those who have arrived illegally, we are accepting applicants – subject to stringent security checks – through a new safe and legal route.'
Despite the political storm, crossings did slow during the autumn, with poor weather contributing to a 28-day period without any arrivals. The last recorded crossings of 2025 were on December 20th.
