Donald Trump has told aides privately he won't end the ceasefire with Iran unless US troops are killed. The new red line, reported by the Wall Street Journal, suggests the fragile truce, which has held since April 8 despite sporadic missile exchanges, could last months.
Trump's Stance on Iran and Conflict Duration
Trump remains adamant that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and has frequently pointed to the length of the current conflict, which began on February 28, versus the duration of previous wars. His reluctance to return to all-out war comes amid clashes with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who the President yelled at in a phone call Monday over his strikes on Lebanon.
Tensions with Netanyahu and Lebanon Front
'Are you f***ing crazy? What are you f***ing doing?' Trump fumed at Netanyahu. Israel has launched war on another front against Iran proxy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon even as the US negotiates a peace deal, and has threatened to bomb the capital Beirut. Iran has demanded a peace deal must also extend to Lebanon, complicating talks for the Trump administration.
While the administration has characterized recent exchanges as tit-for-tat, US officials told the Journal that they have increased doubts over the long-term possibility of a ceasefire. 'In that part of the world, ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner,' Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday. 'It takes two to tango. We hit them very hard on something else and so they were responding,' he added.
Economic and Political Pressures
Trump insists he is in no rush to end the war, telling the New York Post this week that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could last until Labor Day. That timeframe will not assuage Republican fears ahead of the midterms. The national average gas price stands at $4.20 per gallon, up from $2.90 per gallon before the war started, while the annual inflation rate has surged to 3.8 percent, its highest since May 2023.
Memorandum of Understanding Stalemate
Trump and his top team have been working on a 'memorandum of understanding' (MOU) with Iran for around two weeks. The MOU would define the initial terms of a deal and then a negotiation would follow for a 60-day period. Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal on Friday, demanding concessions before any money changes hands. Iran says it will only negotiate its nuclear program once its assets have been unfrozen, or Washington provides some other financial benefit.
The stalemate comes as Iran struck a Kuwaiti airport used by US forces on Wednesday, killing an Indian national and wounding more than 60 people. As the fighting spiraled, Hezbollah on Thursday rejected a fresh US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government, with leader Naim Kassem branding it 'Satan's dream in heaven' and demanding a full Israeli withdrawal. Israel had threatened to bomb Beirut's southern suburbs before a separate deal on Monday, under which it agreed to hold fire in exchange for Hezbollah halting attacks on northern Israel.
More than 3,500 people have been killed in Lebanon and over 1.2 million have been displaced. The fighting has killed 27 Israeli soldiers and three civilians.
