Labour MPs are increasingly concerned that the government's tough stance on immigration could alienate progressive voters and cost the party the next general election. With Reform on course to take hundreds of council seats in Thursday's local elections and leading in two mayoral races, some MPs fear a lurch to the right on migration is turning off the electorate.
One Labour insider admitted the opening image of the elections was an MP punching a swing voter, making for a tough campaign. However, No 10 insiders remain bullish, arguing that immigration is a priority for voters across the spectrum and that the party is not unduly focused on countering Nigel Farage's Reform.
Government sources say internal research shows voters want the prime minister to get a grip on border security, and that building public confidence is essential to create space for discussions on youth visas and conflict-driven migration. Officials acknowledge that many conflate legal and irregular migration, with the ONS's upward revision of net migration to nearly one million last year damaging public trust.
Small boat crossings remain a major political problem, with numbers exceeding 10,000 this year, a 40% increase on last year. The government claims early signs of impact, including disrupted supply chains for people-smugglers and improved French cooperation. The Compagnie de Marche policing unit will be reinstated from Thursday, and French police are expected to have legal backing to intercept boats in shallow waters soon.
There has also been a 40% increase in illegal-working raids since the election, aimed at shutting down the hidden-market economy that European allies see as a pull factor. The government plans to publish a white paper on reducing legal migration, with Home Office insiders insisting the work began in November and is not a reaction to Reform's rise.
“We promised we’d get to grips with immigration and we’re going to do our damnedest to do that,” said one government insider. “It’s not about countering Farage, it’s about delivering on our election promises.”
