Andy Burnham is backing Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's stringent efforts to crack down on immigration, his allies say, in a bid to win votes from Reform UK supporters in the upcoming Makerfield by-election. The Greater Manchester mayor reportedly wants to 'reframe' the changes but supports her attempts to limit legal and illegal migration, according to sources in his team.
By-Election Context
Next month's by-election is expected to be a close contest between Mr Burnham and Reform UK, which made recent council gains in local elections. Reform has previously dubbed him 'open-borders Andy', but those close to his campaign have told The Guardian he will not want to dilute the government's curbs on migration.
Home Office Reforms
Home Office reforms under Ms Mahmood include ending the right to permanent refugee status and new settlement rules for people who have come to the UK since 2021. Under the plans, the default qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) will increase from five years to 10, and migrants could be eligible for benefits and social housing only once they become British citizens. Those granted asylum whose country is later deemed safe will also be asked to leave. People in the country illegally could face up to 30 years before qualifying for long-term residency.
However, the government could face pressure from Labour backbenchers to abandon these reforms after new figures are expected to show net migration has declined to its lowest level since the pandemic.
Moral and Trust Issues
'For Andy, migration is a moral issue as much as anything, showing people who've lost faith in politics that we do have control and we can do good,' one source said. 'We need to tell a positive story about the contribution of migration to our country, but we cannot do that unless people trust that the people they vote for have control over our borders.'
Labour MP Andy McDonald previously criticised the retrospective change to the ILR qualifying period, calling it 'innately un-British' and warning it would cause 'massive upheaval' for workers who have already settled in the UK at the government's request.
Migration Figures
Migration expert Dr Ben Brindle of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said the latest Office for National Statistics figures could show net migration falling below 200,000 for the first time since March 2021, though he expected the decline to be temporary.
Leadership Implications
If he returns to Westminster, Mr Burnham is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, having gathered support as the prime minister has drawn increasing criticism. A source close to his campaign said: 'Immigration is the second most important issue there. He must show decisive leadership on this and reframe but back the reforms to restore control over our borders and create a firm but fair migration system.'
However, key figures from Labour's Blue Labour movement have publicly backed the home secretary as the party's next leader, a blow to Mr Burnham's leadership ambitions. The Independent has approached a spokesperson for Mr Burnham, while a spokesperson for Ms Mahmood declined to comment to The Guardian.
