Starmer's Expected Resignation Triggers Leadership Contest
Sir Keir Starmer is expected to resign as prime minister, which would initiate a contest to choose both the next Labour leader and the next occupant of 10 Downing Street. The process, governed by Labour's internal rules, involves multiple stages and could take several weeks or months.
How Candidates Enter the Contest
Labour's rules require candidates to first secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs, which represents 20% of the party's parliamentary strength. After that, they need nominations from either 5% of constituency Labour parties or three affiliated organisations, including at least two trade unions, that collectively represent 5% of affiliated membership. Only after passing these hurdles do candidates proceed to a vote by party members.
Potential Candidates
Andy Burnham, who recently stood in the Makerfield by-election and gave up the Greater Manchester mayoralty to become an MP, is widely believed to already have the necessary support from MPs. Former health secretary Wes Streeting has repeatedly stated he has the required 81 names and has been outlining his vision since his resignation. Former Royal Marines officer Al Carns, who quit as armed forces minister over defence funding and treatment of Northern Ireland veterans, has also hinted at a leadership bid, though it is unclear if he has enough support.
How the Leadership Contest Works
Once candidates secure the necessary backing, they are put to a vote among party members, who rank them in order of preference. A candidate wins if they receive more than 50% of first preferences, typically through elimination rounds. The timetable is set by Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC).
Timeline and Potential Scenarios
Labour's last leadership contest in 2020 lasted about three months, from nominations in early January to the result in early April. NEC sources have indicated a desire for a shorter contest, possibly a maximum of two months. However, Burnham's supporters have suggested a 'transition' period that could see the new leader take over in September, implying a longer process.
If Burnham becomes the only candidate, it could result in a 'coronation' with no membership ballot, potentially wrapping up in weeks or even days. However, Burnham's preference for a three-month transition could leave Starmer as a lame duck during critical events like a NATO summit on defence spending and a UK-EU summit in Brussels. There is precedent: Gordon Brown was the only candidate in Labour's 2007 leadership election and still attended hustings around the country before formally taking over from Tony Blair.
