Keir Starmer faces a nightmare set of results in this week's local elections, with his premiership hanging in the balance. The Mirror examines the possibilities of what may or may not happen in the days after the vote.
Starmer's Precarious Position
There is not a Labour MP, a person in No10, nor an esteemed journalist who can predict what will happen in the aftermath of this week's local elections. For months, Labour MPs have warned the end of Keir Starmer's premiership is nigh. Some believed the Peter Mandelson scandal would be the end of him. Others felt Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's dramatic call for him to resign was his curtain call. One MP remarked that Mr Starmer would be 'finished' if Labour came third in the Gorton and Denton by-election behind the Greens and Reform — a result that became a reality.
Yet Mr Starmer has clung on time and time again. One reason for this is there isn't a successor with an organised campaign to unseat him. While Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham are all rumoured to have leadership ambitions, there is no clear route for either one of them to take over. Mr Streeting is still plagued by his close ties to disgraced peer Peter Mandelson, while Ms Rayner awaits the outcome of an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs. Greater Manchester mayor Mr Burnham is not an MP, with his chances scuppered of winning a by-election after he was blocked from standing in the Gorton contest in February.
Global Instability and Internal Turmoil
Another reason is the war in Iran has unleashed critical global instability that threatens to hit the pockets of British families — and a change in Prime Minister would do nothing to steady the ship. Labour MPs face a gloomy conundrum. Ousting the PM without a proper plan risks months of distraction and political navel-gazing. But the alternative could leave the door open to the rapid rise of Reform UK and the Green Party.
Over the weekend one MP told this publication they hoped their colleagues — as well as officials in Downing Street — don't 'panic' into a bid to topple the PM or a disruptive ministerial reshuffle after Thursday's local elections. 'It's going to be sad but I don't think that means we plunge into chaos. I don't think we should do anything rash. We should keep cool heads,' they said. But they also admitted no Labour MP can predict how they will feel after what is expected to be a set of nightmare results for the party.
Threats Across the UK
Losing Wales — which Labour has held since its devolution in 1999 — would have been seismic as it is. But coming third place to Plaid Cymru and Reform, as is predicted, could be catastrophic. Labour's historic ties are entrenched within the country. The seat of Keir Hardie, the founder of the party, was in the Welsh town of Merthyr. Likewise, Labour's decades-long stronghold in seats across London are under threat from the Greens, while areas in the North like Sunderland are in Reform's sights. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party is set to retain power despite its almost 20-year tenure being plagued by failure and scandal, while Reform UK is also expected to make gains.
Possible Reshuffle or Timetable for Departure
Some MPs are privately calling for a major reset of Mr Starmer's top team with a Cabinet reshuffle bringing in more soft left figures into the fold. But recent reports have suggested the PM is against the idea of a reshuffle and believes the move would be a distraction. In the end, he may not have a choice anyway. After Mr Sarwar called for the PM to stand down, he was offered a lifeline by his Cabinet ministers who rallied around him. But some are now reportedly wobbling as many are fed up with the merry-go-round of chatter about whether Mr Starmer is up to the job. Forcing the PM to set out a timetable for his replacement is one option said to be being considered.
Others believe any coup against the PM would interfere with the Government's crucial focus on the war in Iran. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander on Sunday warned her colleagues against turning Labour into a 'self-indulgent debating society when there are pockets of the world that feel like they are going to hell in a handcar at the moment'.
Starmer's Plans and the Road Ahead
The PM is said to have no plans to stand down, whether people call for him to go or not, with his priorities firmly set on tackling the cost of living for families. He is expected to offer his MPs some kind of reset in his Government's political messaging. But he faces a tough choice in whether to move his party more to the left or more to the right, with Labour on the brink of bleeding votes to parties on all sides of the political spectrum. Over the weekend, he vowed to use the King's Speech to set out an 'agenda of radical reform' focused on defence, energy bills and economic security. For now, the opening of the new parliamentary year on May 13 feels distant. Before then, Mr Starmer's latest tipping point approaches — and we can only wait to see if this time he ends up too close to the edge to survive.
