Sir Keir Starmer is expected to resign as Prime Minister as soon as Monday, according to reports, triggering a Labour Party leadership contest to choose his successor. The move follows Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election on Friday, which has positioned him as the frontrunner to take over.
Burnham's Path to Leadership
Burnham's decision to stand in the by-election, giving up the Greater Manchester mayoralty to become an MP, signals his confidence in securing the necessary backing from the parliamentary party. Under Labour rules, candidates must first secure the support of 81 MPs (20% of the party's parliamentary strength) to get onto the ballot. They then need nominations from either 5% of constituency Labour parties or three affiliated organisations (including two trade unions) representing 5% of affiliated membership. Only after passing these stages do candidates go before the party membership.
Other Potential Candidates
Former health secretary Wes Streeting has repeatedly insisted he has the 81 names required to mount a bid and has been setting out his platform since his resignation. Former Royal Marines officer Al Carns, who quit as armed forces minister over defence funding and treatment of Northern Ireland veterans, has also hinted at a run, though it is unclear if he has the necessary support.
How the Contest Works
Once candidates secure the required backing, they are put to a vote among party members, who rank them in order of preference. A contender wins if they get more than 50% of first preferences, typically through a process of elimination in rounds of voting. The timetable is set by Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC).
Timeline
The last leadership contest in 2020 lasted about three months. NEC sources have suggested a shorter contest of up to two months. However, Burnham's supporters have floated a 'transition' period until September, which would extend the timeline. If Burnham is the only candidate, a 'coronation' could wrap up within weeks or days, but his preference for a transition could leave Starmer as a lame duck during key events like a NATO summit and a UK-EU summit.
Precedent for Coronation
Gordon Brown was the only candidate in Labour's 2007 leadership election more than a month before Tony Blair stepped down. During that period, Brown attended hustings to set out his ideas.
