Voters across Scotland are heading to the polls on Thursday to elect 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) in the Holyrood election. Polling stations opened at 7am and will close at 10pm, with votes cast in local constituencies and across eight regional lists.
Counting Delayed to Friday
Unlike previous elections—except for 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic—votes will be counted on Friday rather than overnight. The final result is expected to be known late Friday evening.
Campaigners have spent the past six weeks traversing the country in hopes of winning the keys to Bute House. First Minister John Swinney’s SNP has led in polls since the campaign began, with Swinney telling voters that a majority for his party—a rarity in Holyrood’s voting system—would allow him to pressure Westminster for a second independence referendum.
SNP Pushes Independence
Speaking ahead of polls opening, Swinney said the election was “Scotland’s opportunity to choose a better future by voting SNP for real action on the cost of living, to lock Nigel Farage out of power, and to secure a fresh start with independence.” He added, “By casting both votes for the SNP, Scotland can elect a strong majority SNP government that will always stand up for Scotland, prioritise the cost of living, and deliver that fresh start of independence that Scotland needs.”
SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, who is running for Holyrood in this election, echoed that sentiment, saying the election offered voters the prospect of a “fresh start of independence.” Speaking an hour before polls opened, Flynn told the Press Association: “The increasingly unaffordable cost of living in the UK has defined this election. Brexit Britain is Broken – and Scotland is trapped in a never-ending cycle of soaring bills and constant chaos under Westminster control. The fresh start of independence is the opportunity Scotland can’t afford to miss. It is the opportunity to use Scotland’s huge energy wealth to lower household bills and build a better future – but it will only happen if people unite behind the SNP today. Every vote for the SNP will count to deliver the strongest possible support with the cost of living now – and to escape the constant chaos of Westminster control with independence.”
Reform UK Poised for Gains
One of the unknowns ahead of Friday’s results is the fate of Reform UK. The party has polled well for the first time at Holyrood and looks poised to win at least a dozen seats, with a key battle between Lord Malcolm Offord’s party and Labour for second place.
Anas Sarwar has insisted the polls—some of which put Labour in third—are wrong and his party will defy pollsters and pundits on Thursday. However, this is a far cry from Labour’s success in Scotland at the 2024 election. Sarwar cut ties with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in February, calling for him to stand down in the wake of the Mandelson scandal, severing an alliance that had held since the pair took over their respective parties.
Greens and Lib Dems Eye Gains
The Scottish Greens and the Lib Dems also look set for gains, according to polls, with the Greens forecast to win their first-ever local constituency. Green co-leader Gillian Mackay said every vote for her party was a “vote for a fairer, greener and independent Scotland and to reject the hatred and division of Reform UK.” She insisted: “We don’t have to accept a broken status quo. It’s time to demand better.”
Meanwhile, forecasts suggest the Scottish Tories’ recent history of defying political gravity—initially engineered by former leader Ruth Davidson—which saw them grasp the unionist vote and sit in second place for the past decade, could be over. Russell Findlay’s party is projected to shed votes and seats.
Key Issues: Cost of Living and Tax
The campaign has been dominated by the cost of living. The SNP pledged to cap bus fares and prices of supermarket essentials, while Reform and the Scottish Tories focused on tax cuts. Scottish Labour also pitched tax cuts, but only if an Anas Sarwar-led government can kickstart the economy. The Scottish Greens pledged to introduce more taxes to pay for universal free bus travel, while the Scottish Lib Dems centred their campaign on the NHS and social care.
