Reform UK's support may be approaching a ceiling as the party increasingly relies on socially conservative views held by a minority of voters, according to a major study led by psephologist John Curtice. The research, part of the British Social Attitudes report, found that while Reform supporters are disproportionately unhappy with politicians and public services, recent recruits are driven more by ideology than discontent.
The study suggests that Reform's current polling range in the mid- to high-20s could be near its peak. Curtice noted that around 30% appears to be a plausible ceiling given the party's emphasis on social and cultural issues. However, he added that in a fragmented political landscape, this level might still be enough to win a general election under first-past-the-post.
Reform supporters are typically older, male, less qualified, and more likely to have voted for Brexit. Just 9% of graduates back the party, compared to 40% of those with below A-level qualifications. Key attitudes include high mistrust in politicians and government, with 67% believing migrants harm the economy and 75% thinking they undermine British culture—more than double the national averages.
The report also highlighted that 88% of Reform supporters think equal opportunities for transgender people have gone too far, versus 48% nationally. On race and sexuality, 52% say equality for black and Asian people has gone too far, and 51% say the same for LGB people. Curtice argued that improving public services alone may not stem Reform's rise, given the party's sharp ideological distinctiveness.
