The first major poll for the crucial Gorton & Denton by-election has revealed a tight race, with Nigel Farage's Reform UK party narrowly on course for a potential victory. Research conducted by Find Out Now indicates that, when excluding undecided voters, Reform commands 36 per cent support among constituents, while Labour trails closely behind on 33 per cent.
Polling Details and Methodology
The survey, which interviewed 143 people within the constituency on January 26 and 27, comes with significant caveats. Constituency polling is notoriously challenging to execute accurately, and the sample size is relatively small, meaning results should be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, the findings provide an early snapshot of voter sentiment ahead of the February 26 contest.
Impact of Candidate Selection
In a striking revelation, the poll underscores the consequences of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's decision to block Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the Labour candidate. The data suggests that had Burnham been permitted to run, he could have secured a commanding 49 per cent of the vote, with Reform's support potentially dropping to 28 per cent. This highlights a significant strategic dilemma for Labour as they navigate the by-election campaign.
Green Party Performance and Left-Wing Dynamics
The poll offers a modest boost to Sir Keir Starmer's strategy of consolidating the left-wing vote. The Green Party, seen as some distance behind, registered 21 per cent support. This positioning could allow Labour to potentially squeeze Green supporters in a bid to overtake Reform, though the gap remains narrow and the political landscape volatile.
Campaign Controversies and Candidate Announcements
The by-election campaign has already been marred by controversy and missteps. Reform UK has selected GB News presenter and right-wing commentator Matt Goodwin as its candidate, while the other major parties are yet to finalise their contenders. Labour, in particular, appears to be struggling to find a suitable candidate for a seat they comfortably retained in the 2024 general election, but where they now risk finishing third.
Legal Threats and Campaign Tactics
Mr Goodwin has threatened to involve the police over a Labour campaign video that falsely claimed he had disparaged Manchester. The footage was actually edited from comments where he criticised the lack of atmosphere at a Conservative Party conference. Reform has given Greater Manchester Police formal notice, alleging breaches of the Representation of the People Act 1983, though legal sanctions remain unclear as Labour has not yet selected a candidate.
Embarrassing Errors and Constituency Confusion
The campaign trail has also been littered with embarrassing gaffes. The Green Party faced mockery after erecting posters asking for help to win their fifth seat, but misspelling the constituency name as 'Gorten and Denton'. This error was spotted by Sky News at a rally for Zack Polanski, the hard-left party leader who stands a strong chance in the Greater Manchester seat.
Similarly, Reform's Lee Anderson was ridiculed after appearing to campaign in the wrong constituency. He posted social media pictures of around 100 activists outside the Stanley House Function Rooms in Audenshaw, which is actually located in Angela Rayner's neighbouring Ashton-Under-Lyne constituency, not Gorton & Denton.
Political Context and Future Developments
This by-election represents a critical test for all parties involved. Reform UK will be hoping to capitalise on their poll lead and secure a symbolic victory in a traditionally Labour-held area. Labour, meanwhile, must overcome internal divisions and candidate selection issues to mount an effective challenge. The Green Party's performance could influence the broader left-wing vote dynamics in the region.
With the Greens expected to announce their candidate imminently and Labour still deliberating, the coming days will be crucial in shaping the final stages of this hotly contested campaign. Voters in Gorton & Denton will go to the polls on February 26 in what promises to be a closely watched and potentially transformative electoral battle.
