Portuguese citizens are casting their votes in a presidential election that appears to be one of the most fragmented and closely fought in the nation's modern democratic history. For only the second time since the end of fascist dictatorship five decades ago, the contest is widely expected to head to a second-round runoff, signalling a significant shift in the political landscape driven by the rise of the far right and voter disillusionment with mainstream parties.
A Fragmented Field and Key Contenders
Opinion polls conducted in the final days of the campaign indicated a remarkably tight race between three leading candidates. The final pre-election survey from Pitagórica pollsters, released on Friday, placed Socialist party candidate António José Seguro at 25.1%, closely followed by André Ventura, leader of the anti-immigration Chega party, at 23%. In third, but still within striking distance, was João Cotrim de Figueiredo from the rightwing, pro-business Liberal Initiative party, polling at 22.3%.
Approximately 11 million eligible voters are participating, with polling stations set to close at 7pm local time. Exit polls are anticipated by 8pm, with official results expected overnight. While the presidency is largely ceremonial, it holds crucial powers, including the ability to dissolve parliament, call snap elections, and veto legislation under certain circumstances.
The Rise of Chega and Runoff Dynamics
The strong showing for André Ventura's Chega party marks a continuation of its dramatic political ascent. Founded just seven years ago, the anti-establishment party became Portugal's main opposition force after securing 22.8% of the vote in a parliamentary election last May. Some polls last week even showed Ventura with a slight lead, though always within the margin of error.
However, analysts note that Ventura faces a significant hurdle due to his high rejection rate among the electorate, estimated at over 60%. Most projections suggest that while he may reach the runoff, he would likely lose in the final round as voters from other camps unite against him. The Economist Intelligence Unit recently noted that a Seguro-Ventura runoff "would be more straightforward given his limited appeal beyond his core base," whereas a contest involving Cotrim de Figueiredo would be far less predictable.
Broader Political Landscape and Other Candidates
Beyond the top three, eight other candidates are also in the race, each hoping to cause an upset. Notable figures include Luís Marques Mendes, backed by the ruling centre-right Social Democrats, and retired admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who led the country's successful Covid-19 vaccination campaign. Both have been polling above 11%.
The fragmentation seen in this election underscores a profound change in Portuguese politics. The last and only time a presidential election went to a second round was in 1986. The current scenario, with a far-right candidate positioned as a potential finalist, highlights the growing influence of populist and anti-immigration sentiments, mirroring trends observed elsewhere in Europe, and reflects deep-seated voter disenchantment with traditional political forces.
