Polling Experts Confirm Reform UK Support Is Declining Amid Farage-YouGov Dispute
Britain's foremost polling experts have asserted there is "no doubt" that support for Reform UK is falling, following a public dispute between party leader Nigel Farage and the influential pollster YouGov. The controversy erupted after Farage accused YouGov of being "deceptive" in its presentation of voting intention surveys, prompting the firm to agree to publish additional data alongside future polls.
Polling Data Shows Consistent Decline
Professor Sir John Curtice, along with other leading analysts, has highlighted that Reform UK's average support across multiple polls has decreased by two points over the past month. Speaking to The Independent, Sir John stated, "There is no doubt Reform support is down. The average across 10 pollsters this month is 27 percent, which is down two points on February." He added that the party appears to be finding it more difficult to attract support from various voter segments.
This decline marks a significant shift from last year's peak, when Reform UK enjoyed support exceeding 30 percent in some polls. An Ipsos Mori poll released on Tuesday showed the party dropping two points to 28 percent, while a Survation poll for the upcoming Scottish Parliament election placed Reform in third place behind Labour, with support falling two points to 17 percent.
Farage Challenges Polling Methodology
Despite the latest YouGov poll indicating a two-point increase to 25 percent for Reform UK, Nigel Farage has maintained that this figure still underestimates his party's true support. At a press conference in Westminster, Farage criticised YouGov's methodology, which questions respondents about how they would vote in their specific constituencies rather than which party they generally favour.
Farage argued, "What was the gold standard of the British polling industry... I see that 90 percent of its share price has gone, which tells you quite a lot about the public's belief and confidence in their current methodologies." He disputed claims of declining support, pointing to increases over the past two weeks across several polling companies affiliated with the British Polling Council.
Expert Consensus on Downward Trend
Other polling experts have corroborated Sir John Curtice's assessment. Lord Robert Hayward noted in his annual pre-local elections report that all pollsters are showing Reform UK's percentages in decline. Similarly, Dr Mark Pack of The Week in Polls observed a consistent four-point gap between YouGov and other pollsters, with overall averages dropping from 29 percent to 27 percent.
Dr Pack explained, "Other pollsters may put Reform higher, but the common picture across them all is of Reform slipping in the polls." This consensus among experts undermines Reform UK's narrative of sustained momentum, which the party has heavily promoted during its extended lead in polls over recent months.
YouGov Defends Its Approach
In response to Farage's criticisms, a YouGov spokesperson defended the company's methodology, stating that their headline voting intention figures are based on how people say they will vote in their own constituencies, adjusted for likelihood to vote and undecided respondents using multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP).
The spokesperson added, "We switched to asking specifically about constituencies prior to the 2024 general election, and our post-election review found this significantly increased our accuracy as it is more effective at picking up tactical voting and how people actually cast their vote." This methodological difference explains why YouGov's figures for Reform UK have consistently been lower than those of rival pollsters.
The ongoing dispute highlights the critical role of polling methodology in shaping political narratives, as Reform UK faces mounting evidence that its previously robust support is beginning to wane.
