A dramatic political shift is underway in Australia, with the latest Resolve poll revealing that One Nation has surged to become the nation's secondary political party in terms of primary vote support. The poll, conducted for Nine from March 9 to 14, shows Pauline Hanson's party gaining significant ground on the Labor Party and overtaking the Coalition in a stunning reversal of fortunes.
Primary Vote Numbers Tell a Striking Story
The Resolve poll results demonstrate a remarkable transformation in Australian voter sentiment over the past twelve months. Labor's primary vote has fallen by three percentage points to just 29 percent, while One Nation's support has risen by two points to reach 24 percent. Meanwhile, the Coalition's primary vote has also declined, dropping by one percentage point to 22 percent.
This represents a dramatic collapse for the Coalition, which enjoyed 37 percent support as recently as March 2025. The party has therefore lost a staggering fifteen percentage points in just one year. One Nation's rise is particularly striking when viewed in historical context: the party's primary vote stood at just 7 percent last March and was only 6.4 percent at the federal election in May 2025.
The Challenge of Translating Votes to Seats
Despite this impressive surge in primary vote support, significant questions remain about whether One Nation can translate this popularity into parliamentary seats. The party faces considerable challenges with preference votes, and the upcoming Farrer by-election—triggered by Sussan Ley's resignation—will serve as the first real test of its electoral viability.
It also remains uncertain how effective the Liberal Party's recent leadership change will prove to be. The party ditched former leader Sussan Ley in favor of Angus Taylor last month, and Taylor has received a net satisfaction score of 9 percentage points in the latest polling. This compares favorably to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's score of -17 and is substantially higher than Ley's final poll rating of -23 before her resignation.
Voter Disillusionment Drives Change
Resolve pollster Jim Reed explained that the true test for Taylor will be whether he can sustain his current popularity as voters increasingly look toward smaller parties for tangible change. "Labor have lost vote share to minor parties and are sitting at their lowest point this term," Reed noted.
"This follows the interest rate rise and fuel shortages, which are the straw that broke the camel's back for voters who have been struggling with the cost of living for four years now." Reed further observed that One Nation appears to be following a pattern similar to Reform UK, first taking vote share from the right and then from the left.
"They are taking votes from those who feel ill served, ignored or rejected by the major parties and they're voting for change, any change," he added.
Major Party Discontent Reaches New Heights
The latest Resolve poll comes amid ongoing frustration about fuel costs—triggered by conflict in the Middle East—and broader cost-of-living pressures. An astonishing 50 percent of poll participants indicated they would support a minor political party, including One Nation, the Greens, or independents. This marks the first time such a high figure has been recorded by Resolve.
In similar fashion, primary support for the Greens and independents each rose by one percentage point to 12 percent and 8 percent respectively. Focus group participants expressed sentiments that reflect this growing disillusionment with traditional parties, with comments like, "The major parties are just arguing in parliament about ISIS brides while the world's burning!" and "Now leaning towards One Nation because at least Pauline loves her country."
Cost of living emerged as voters' top priority, with 43 percent of respondents nominating this issue as their primary concern. This widespread economic anxiety appears to be driving the dramatic political realignment captured in the latest polling data.
