It has been just under five weeks since that chaotic mid-May Thursday when Wes Streeting resigned as Health Secretary, Angela Rayner announced her tax affairs were settled, and Josh Simons stepped down as Makerfield's MP to make way for Andy Burnham. The political limbo is nearly over. In the early hours of Friday morning, one of the key loose ends from the events of May 14 will be tied up when the results of today's by-election in the south Wigan constituency are announced.
This by-election is pivotal, as political reporters have been emphasizing since the campaign began. Instead of repeating that, let us focus on what is expected to happen. Polls opened in Makerfield at 7am, along with two Scottish constituencies—Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South—which are also holding by-elections for Westminster seats. Polls will close at 10pm, and shortly afterward, vote counting for Makerfield will commence at a Wigan venue called The Edge, located on the banks of the River Douglas. Interestingly, a Celine Dion tribute act performed there last Saturday, and the venue will soon host tributes to the Stone Roses, Oasis, AC/DC, Elvis, Bon Jovi, Michael Jackson, and Abba—though not all on the same night.
Results are expected around 3am or 4am. The reporter will be in Wigan at the counting room to learn the winner firsthand and hear their speech. However, the identity of that winner remains unknown. Three likely scenarios have been identified for Makerfield, each with distinct implications.
Scenario One: Labour Wins with More Votes Than Reform and Restore Combined
This would be great news for everyone in Labour, except perhaps Sir Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham would demonstrate his ability to counter the national right-wing surge, and his future in Number 10 would likely be secure.
Scenario Two: Labour Wins but with Fewer Votes Than Reform and Restore Combined
This would still be good news for Andy Burnham, though more ambiguous. Nigel Farage would face a loud wake-up call, indicating that the threat from his party's right could cost him further victories.
Scenario Three: Reform Wins, Beating Labour Despite Restore
This remains a real possibility despite recent polling giving Burnham the lead. If Reform wins, there would be chaos at the top of government, and Farage could start measuring for Downing Street curtains.
By Friday morning, the first narrative thread from May 14 will conclude. However, more developments are expected, including a Greater Manchester mayoral by-election if Burnham secures a seat in the House of Commons. Both Reform and the Green Party are likely to invest significant effort into achieving an upset there. Whatever happens, the coming week is expected to be eventful.
