Votes are being counted in the Makerfield by-election, a contest that could pave the way for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and launch a bid for the Labour leadership. The Greater Manchester mayor is seeking to hold the seat against a strong challenge from Nigel Farage's Reform UK in what is being described as one of the most consequential by-elections in British political history.
If Mr Burnham succeeds in retaining the Makerfield seat for Labour, he is expected to use his return to the House of Commons to mount an effort to oust Sir Keir Starmer. Speaking during the campaign, Mr Burnham described the Makerfield vote as a "vote to change politics" and vowed to "take that fight as high as I can possibly take it."
Reform UK Threat and Restore Britain Factor
Reform UK's candidate, Robert Kenyon, represents the main threat to Mr Burnham's plans, with the party enjoying high national poll ratings and having recently picked up council seats in the constituency. Mr Kenyon expressed confidence in a "big vote for Reform." However, a potential factor in Mr Burnham's favour is the campaign mounted by Restore Britain, the party founded by Rupert Lowe after his public falling out with Reform and Nigel Farage. If would-be Reform voters have instead backed Restore, it could boost Mr Burnham's chances of victory.
Leadership Contest or Coronation?
Mr Burnham has stated he will participate in any leadership contest if he returns to Westminster, although his supporters hope Sir Keir will step down voluntarily rather than fight to save his premiership. Reports suggest Mr Burnham and his allies are hoping for a "coronation," where Sir Keir stands aside, avoiding a contest that could damage Labour's brand. However, the Prime Minister has repeatedly insisted he has no intention of leaving Number 10 and is reported to have amassed a war chest to fund his campaign against any leadership challenge, as first reported by The Times. Sources indicate he has the backing of private donors, with fundraising intensifying in recent days and total pledges reaching six figures.
Meanwhile, The Guardian reported that several Cabinet ministers have had to be persuaded not to resign early by Mr Burnham's camp to prevent the government descending into chaos ahead of the by-election.
Other By-Elections
Makerfield is one of three parliamentary by-elections being counted. The others are in the Scottish seats of Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, where SNP MPs Stephen Gethins and Stephen Flynn stood down after winning elections to the Scottish Parliament in May. The Conservatives have targeted Aberdeen South, highlighting Kemi Badenoch's support for the North Sea oil and gas industry. Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake noted that areas like Makerfield and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry are not typically natural Conservative territory, and acknowledged a tough fight in Aberdeen South.
